(yahoo images)Starting Pitching: I thought Joe Maddon would take a page out of the 2008 Rays playbook and use Matt Moore the same way he used David Price, pitching him multiple innings out of the bullpen. Instead he's starting him IN GAME 1. Everything the aging hipster has done this last month has worked, so I wouldn't be shocked if Moore came out and dominated like he did in his only start of the year against the Yankees. The Rays will go with Moore (1-0, 2.89 ERA), James Shields (16-12, 2.82), David Price (12-13, 3.49) and Jeremy Hellickson (13-10, 2.95). Texas counters with C.J.Wilson (16-7, 2.94), Derek Holland (16-5, 3.95), Colby Lewis (14-10, 4.40), and Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39). Shields has been the best pitcher out of all of the above this year, with Price being the X-factor. If he pitches like he's capable of, and Moore gives them a quality start in game 1, the Rays have a great chance. Holland pitched extremely well out of the bullpen in last season's World Series appearance, but i don't like Colby Lewis. He gave up a whopping 35 HR's on the season, and is the clear weak link. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Bullpen: Texas made themselves considerably better at the trade deadline when they went out and got Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. They've combined for a 2.89 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP with an 8 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio since coming over from San Diego and Baltimore respectively. In terms of closers, I'd be more comfortable with Kyle Farnsworth than Neftali Feliz right now however. Tampa's other relief pitchers are largely unproven outside of J.P. Howell, who had a horrible year coming off of an injury. Advantage: Texas
Lineups: Breaking it down position by position, I'd give Texas the edge in every spot other than DH (Damon over Torrealba), 2B (Zobrist barely over Kinsler), and LF (Jennings over Gentry). Mike Napoli hit 30 HR's, Josh Hamilton is Josh Hamilton, and then they also have Michael Young (213 hits, 106 RBI's), Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Nellie Cruz. The only potential problem is being a little bit overly right-handed. Tampa has to hope that B.J.Upton hits like he did in 2008, and that they can manufacture runs in the running game. Advantage: Texas
Managers: Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball. That being said, Ron Washington doesn't exactly suck either. He handled the problems with Michael Young in spring training, and put the foot on the gas pedal as they took the Angels out of contention with a 19-6 September. Both teams will run, but Wash does it more judiciously. I'd give the slight edge to Maddon, but I don't see Washington exactly ruining anything.
Advantage: Tampa Bay
I'm rooting for the Rays here, as they've become my favorite AL team with Boston becoming more and more like the Yankees with each passing day. They can win if their starters can dominate like San Fran did last year, and if Maddon continues to push every single right button. I just think Texas has the better lineup, and just enough pitching to get by. Pick: Texas in 4
(yahoo images)Detroit-Yankees
Starting Pitching: Virginia's own Justin Verlander gets all of the pub, and rightly so with borderline MVP season, but getting Doug Fister from the Mariners was the clear-cut steal of the deadline. Fister went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA, a sub 1 WHIP, and a Cliff Leeesque 10.4 K to walk ratio since coming over from Seattle. This lets questionable at best starters Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello pitch in the 3 and 4 spots, where against the Yankees, enables the Tigers to have a clear advantage. The Yankees have basically one sure thing in C.C.Sabathia (19-8, 3.00), a promising rookie that could be a question mark (Ivan Nova, 16-4, 3.70), and an old guy who arguably pitched over his head in Freddy Garcia (12-8, 3.62). I think Detroit has a clear advantage. Advantage: Detroit
Bullpen: Jose Valverde hasn't blown a save all season, but even with his cute little dance moves that have probably infuriated many a batter throughout the season, he's still not Mariano Rivera in the postseason. David Robertson might be the best 8th inning guy in the league, and I actually like A.J.Burnett as a reliever. I think his sometimes unhittable stuff plays a lot better in that role than as a 6 inning starter. Joaquin Benoit has pitched better as of late, but I don't trust anyone else. Advantage: Yankees
Lineups: Outside of Boston, the Yankees have maybe the best offense in all the land. They work pitchers into deep counts, can hit for power, and also have the Brett Gardner's of the world to steal bases. Detroit too has a potent 1-9, but have some holes with Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez and Austin Jackson all having the potential to combine to go 4-30 in a series. The Yankees also have rookie Jesus Montero lurking on the bench if Posada struggles. Advantage: Yankees
Managers: As a former athlete, I tend to base coaching/managerial comparisons on "who would I want to play for." Do I want to play for a mans man who chain smokes Marlboro Reds and seemingly doesn't take any shit from anyone, or a guy who looks like he weighs 143 pounds, and whines like a little girl when the Orioles don't reschedule rainouts to his liking. Girardi used to play for the Cubs, so one would think I'd like him, but despite winning it all in 2009, I still would prefer to have Leyland in a pinch. Advantage: Tigers
In this case, instead of hitting trumping pitching, I like Detroit's advantage in the starting pitching department more than the advantage the Yankees have hitting Fister is the key, if he and Verlander can shut the Yanks down and at least gain a split in New York, the Tigers will take it. I don't see Verlander getting beat twice. The Pick: Tigers in 5
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