Colleg Football Midseason Recap

So we are somehow halfway through the college football season. I have collected 585 dollars from stats inc for sitting on my ass imputing statistics from the various games I watch on Saturdays. Notre Dame has lost twice as many games as they lost last year. Alabama is still insufferable. Les Miles is still awesome. Jameis Winston might pull a Manziel and win the Heisman.  Everything is still a crap shoot. What follows is an attempt to pick out who's going to win the 1600 after we're 800 meters into the race (goofy running analogy brought to you by my woeful distance running career in high school).

 

ACC: Obviously the Atlantic race is more than likely going to be settled on Saturday night in Clemson. Do you go with the senior QB at home, or the freshman nicknamed “Jameis Christ?” Honestly, these teams seem to be very equal on paper. FSU is averaging 54 a game while allowing 12, and Clemson is scoring 41 and giving up 16 against a harder schedule. Clemson gets more turnovers and sacks, but FSU gives up less points. Both teams have multiple receivers at their disposal. In the Coastal, an undefeated Miami team gets Virginia Tech at home on November 9^th. I just don't think Tech's sometimes erratic offense will travel well down South, so despite their stellar defense, Miami will win. This sets up a showdown between Miami and …....Clemson in the ACC championship. Clemson will win and get to a BCS game, but will not go to the national championship game because they will lose to South Carolina. Meanwhile, Miami will lose to FSU and each team in the ACC will have at least one loss.

 

AAC: Louisville might have lost out on their slim title game hopes by struggling against the likes of Rutgers and Kentucky. With a schedule this week, they literally have to win 70-0 every week to convince people they are good enough in this sick and twisted world where there is no playoff for them to try and prove themselves against the big boys (March Madness>football). Regardless, they aren't losing any time soon and will have to wait for a BCS game to play someone that isn't derptastic.

 

Big 10: Mediocrity is entertaining, right? Ohio State is ahead in the leaders division, with nothing outside of a game in Ann Arbor standing in their way from winning their side. Even with one loss, I'm assuming they'll get the tiebreaker over Wisconsin since they beat them. I'm too lazy to look up the tie breaking rules so we'll just go with that. Indiana and Penn St might be frisky, but they won't win. On the other side, it's looking like someone out of the triumvirate of “teams ranked between 25 and 30 in the country” to challenge the Buckeyes in the title tilt. Nebraska gets Michigan State at home, Michigan State gets Michigan at home, Michigan gets Nebraska at home, so basically you can go with a coin flip or some form of paper, rock, scissoring to find this answer. If I had to guess, I'd go with Nebraska. It looks like a defense with 8 JC's/freshman contributing might be starting to jell.

 

Big 12: Baylor all day son. Sorry that was the first thing that popped into my head. The standings say Texas Tech and Texas are also undefeated. I kind of like Texas Tech, but they do all the same things as Baylor, but just don't do them quite as well. Texas went from being a national joke, to being good all of a sudden because they won one game? Against a team missing the heart and soul of their defense that had been playing out of their heads? Baylor gets everyone from the top five in the league at home except for Oklahoma St, so I think they win the conference. They might lose a game in there, but everyone else will lose two. Texas will lose more than two.

 

PAC 12: I really liked Stanford coming into the year. I just thought that their defense was too stout, and that losing Chip Kelly would hurt Oregon. Methinks I underestimated Niketown however; as Oregon looks as good as they ever have. Oregon St. still has a 0 in the loss column, but Stanford will beat them. Oregon is heading towards being 13-0 and heading to Pasadena to play whichever 1 loss SEC team they get matched up against. In the South, UCLA will emerge. Everyone else is bad, and I can't take ASU seriously after they got handled by a team quarterbacked by Tommy Rees.

 

SEC: Like everyone else, I'm kind of sick of all the countless SEC hype and slobbering. At the same time, it is the best league and home to the best games by far. When someone who doesn't watch college football wants a guide on how to get into it because “there are too many teams to keep track of,” I point them in the direction of the SEC. Eight teams in the top 25 kind of speaks for itself. Any number of things could happen, but I really like how LSU's young defense looked against Florida. With the offense they have being better than it's been in years, I think they can beat Bama and win the West. I like South Carolina to come out of the East, simply because Florida's offense is bad, Georgia is beat up, and Missouri is just a cute story. If LSU slips up in the championship game, Alabama will vulture their way into a game against Oregon for all the marbles, hopefully coming away with a loss of about 586-3.

 

Player Rankings:
( I have a system in ranking players that admittedly isn't perfect. It tends to crystalize better as the season goes on, when everyone has played an even amount of games. At the midseason mark, here's how it stands by position).

 

QB

1. Marcus Mariota, Soph. Oregon ( 100-165 1724 yards, 17 td's 0 Int. 41-426 8 td's rushing)
Mariota puts the video in the video game that is Oregon's offense. He has to be considered the Heisman frontrunner at this point.

2. Johnny Manziel Soph. Texas A&M ( 131-179 1835 14-5, 66-466 5TD's)                                                                           (google images)
I could write about Money Manziel (copyright Bomani Jones) all day long. Instead, just watch the game against Bama if you have any questions about the validity of Manziel's ability to play quarterback.

3.      Teddy Bridgewater, Jr. Louisville (125-176 1872 18-2)

4.      Jameis Winston Frosh. FSU (90-123 1441 17-2)

5.      Tajh Boyd Sr. Clemson (123-185 1783 15-2)

(Next 3: Aaron Murray, Zack Mettenberger, Devin Gardner)

RB

1. Mike Davis Soph. South Carolina (111-742 9 TD’s)
Davis has stepped in for Marcus Lattimore and arguably been more productive. The sophomore is averaging 6.7 yards a pop and has been the best running back in the country.

 2. Melvin Gordon Soph. Wisconsin (90-870 8 TD’s)

 Gordon has gone from someone who the Badgers used primarily on reverses and outside runs, to someone who has been the primary ball carrier, making Wiscy forget Montee Ball ever existed.

      3.      Todd Gurley Soph. Georgia (71-450 4 TD’s)

4.      Bishop Sankey Jr. Washington (159-899 9 TD’s)

5.      Jeremy Hill Sr. Ohio St.(98-715 9 TD’s)

(Next 3: Jordan Hall, Tyler Gaffney, Lache Seastrunk)

 

WR

1. Jarvis Landry Jr. LSU (46-674 7 TD’s)

It looks like the race for the number one wideout is going to be between teammates, as Landry and Beckham have gotten off to tremendous starts for the Tigers. Landry is slightly ahead only on number of catches and touchdowns. LSU is clearly a much different team on offense this season, and these two receivers are one of the main reasons why.

 2. Odell Beckham Jr. LSU (37-733 6 TD’s)

Beckham separates himself as maybe the biggest weapon LSU has simply because he can also be a gamechanger in the return game. He’s averaging 25 yards a kickoff return, and I can see him breaking off a long one in an important game just like the Honey Badger circa 2011.

 

3.      Mike Evans Soph. Texas A&M (32-737 5 TD's)

4.      Sammie Watkins Jr. Clemson (36-582 4 TD's)

5.      Josh Huff Sr. Oregon (27-552 5 TD's)

(Next 3: Jeremy Gallon, Tony Jones, Corey Brown)

 

(photo courtesy of google images)

DL:

1.Vic Beasley Jr. Clemson (20 Tackles, 9 Sacks, 12 TFL’s 2 Forced Fumbles, 5 PBU’s)
A defensive lineman from the state of South Carolina has been an absolute terror this season, but he wears orange and not red. Beasley has built off of a strong finish last year to simply become a dominant force as a pass rusher, which is a big reason why Clemson is number 3 in the country.
2.  Lorenzo Maudlin Jr. Louisville (17 Tackles, 6.5 Sacks, 8.5 TFL’s 3 Forced Fumbles)
The safeties got most of the preseason love for Louisville’s defense, but Maudlin, and to a lesser degree, Marcus Smith, have lived in the backfield for the undefeated Cardinals.

3.      Dean Lowry Jr. Northwestern (16 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 2 INT, 2 Forced Fumbles, 5 PBU’s)

4.      Tony Washington Jr. Oregon ( 29 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 6 TFL’s, 3 Forced Fumbles)

5.      Tyler Scott Sr. Northwestern ( 24 Tackles, 4 Sacks, 6 TFL’s, 2 Forced Fumbles)

(Next 3: Marcus Smith, Dante Fowler, Noah Spence)

LB:  1. Preston Brown Sr. Louisville (39 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 7.5 TFL’s, 1 Forced Fumble)

Brown was a 1^st team all AAC LB in the preseason and the 22^nd best inside linebacker in terms of draft stock according to soothsayer Phil Steele, and he has done nothing to change anyone’s mind playing on a defense that is sturdy on all three levels.

2. Colin Ellis Jr. Northwestern (40 Tackles, 2 INT, 6 PBU’s)
Ellis and some of the Northwestern boys will slide slightly as long as they are out of the top 25, as I use this as part of my basis for my rankings. That being said, he parlayed a strong first game with 2 picks against Cal into this spot. The Wildcats have created a lot of turnovers, and Ellis has been right in the middle of it.

 3. Anthony Barr Sr. UCLA (27 Tackles, 4 Sacks, 4 Forced Fumbles, 10 TFL’s)

4. Amarlo Herrera Jr. Georgia ( 55 Tackles, 5 PBU’s)

5. Ryan Shazier Jr. Ohio St. (47 Tackles, 2 Forced Fumbles, 8 TFL’s)

(Next 3: Stephone Anthony, Chi Chi Ariguzo, Caleb Lavey)

 

DB:

1. Doran Grant Jr. Ohio St. (28 Tackles, 2 INT, 1 Forced Fumble, 7 PBU’s)

Ryan Shazier gets a lot of the hype, but Grant has been very good as well. After getting some burn last year, he stepped in for Travis Howard and has paired with Bradley Roby to produce maybe the best corner tandem in the Big 10.

2. Vernon Hargreaves Frosh. Florida (16 Tackles, 3 INT, 8 PBU’s)

Hargreaves was a top 10-20 recruit depending on who’s rankings you looked at, and has more than lived up to the hype, with 3 interceptions and 8 PBU’s, both of which lead the team.

3. Blake Countess Jr. Michigan (24 Tackles, 4 INT, 6 PBU’s)

4. Ibraheim Campbell Jr. Northwestern (38 Tackles, 4 INT, 6 PBU’s)

5. Armani Reeves Soph. Ohio St. ( 12 Tackles, 1 INT, 6 PBU)

5. Julian Wilson Jr. Oklahoma (12 Tackles, 2 INT, 5 PBU)

(Next 3: Tramain Jacobs, Calvin Pryor, Bradley Roby)

 

 

Top 20 Offensive Players

1.      Marcus Mariota

2.      Johnny Manziel

3.      Teddy Bridgewater

4.      Mike Davis

5.      Jameis Winston

6.      Tajh Boyd

7.      Melvin Gordon

8.      Jarvis Landry

9.      Odell Beckham

10.  Mike Evans

11.  Aaron Murray

12.  Zach Mettenberger

13.  Devin Gardner

14.  Todd Gurley

15.  Bishop Sankey

16.  Jeremy Hill

17.  Bryce Petty

18.  Jordan Hall

19.  Lache Seastrunk

20.  Tyler Gaffney

 

Top 20 Defensive Players:

1.      Vic Beasley

2.      Lorenzo Maudlin

3.      Preston Brown

4.      Dean Lowry

5.      Tony Washington

6.      Colin Ellis

7.      Anthony Barr

8.      Amarlo Herrera

9.      Ryan Shazier

10.  Stephone Anthony

11.  Tyler Scott

12.  Chi Chi Ariguzo

13.  Caleb Lavey

14.  Doran Grant

15.  Vernon Hargreaves

16.  Marcus Smith

17.  Blake Countess

18.  Dante Fowler

19.  Brennan Beyer

20.  Trent Murphy

 

Week 5 College Football Preview

                                          Week 5 College Football Preview

To cap off my writing about college football this season, I decided to let four weeks worth of games play out before I offered any attempt at any type of coherent analysis. You're taking a big leap of faith by assuming anything I say is “coherent” on the sport, but regardless this week I'm going to give some predictions and unveil my first edition of player rankings based off of my OCD statistical tallying. In future weeks, the formula will include some power rankings, combined with some picks and updates on player rankings. Wtihout further ado.....



                                                                  Picks

Arizona St. (2-1) 20, USC (3-1) 7: USC has a really good defense. They've only given up an average of 11 points a game, and 230.5 yards a game so far. On the other side, Cody Kessler is horrible. Marquise Lee is making the same face that Larry Fitzgerald made all last year after John Skelton threw the ball 58 feet over his head again on 3^rd and 12. At this point he's probably actively scouring the streets of Compton trying to see if the dude who played QB for his Pop Warner team when he was 12 can get into USC in time to learn the offense. Taylor Kelly and ASU won't be able to do much, but they'll do enough to get the win at home. They'll struggle to move the ball, but USC doesn't have nearly enough on offense to win on the road here.

Alabama (3-0) 38, Ole Miss (3-0) 31: I'm on board when it comes to Ole Miss. I think they will beat either LSU or Texas A&M. They have so much good young talent it's hard not to take notice. That being said, Alabama is still Alabama. I think the Rebs scare the crap out Saban's boys, but take a close loss here that they almost need to fully develop the scar tissue needed to be truly great in the future. I think this may be the best game of the weekend, and I think Laquon Treadwell (shouts to Crete, IL) and the other WR's will torch an overmatched Bama secondary. I just think Ole Miss just isn't quite there just yet. The Tide win it in a close one.

Ohio St. (4-0) 45, Wisconsin (3-1) 24: Wisconsin hasn't lost a beat with Montee Ball moving on to play with Peyton Manning. They are averaging 8.0 yards a carry, and with Melvin Gordon, James White, and freshman Corey Clement, they have the 2^nd, 14^th, and 24^th best offensive players in my esteemed player rankings. On the Buckeye side, they will get Braxton Miller back and have multiple receivers to get the ball to against the Badger secondary. The reason Ohio State wins is the fact that they can shut down the run just enough to force Joe Stave to have to beat them through the air. With Jared Abbrederis being their only real threat, I think LB Ryan Shazier, and a really young and talented front seven hold the run game in check enough for Miller and his receivers to make enough plays to break things open in the second half.

Notre Dame (3-1) 23, Oklahoma (3-0) 10: I'm sure everyone in America is picking Oklahoma unless you're an unabashed Notre Dame homer like myself. My theory on this one is simple. If ND can win in Oklahoma last year against Landry Jones and a team that I feel was much better than this year's unit, then I don't see them losing at home this year. Blake Bell will not throw for over 400 yards against the Irish D, and I think Notre Dame follows the same template as last week's win against Michigan State, winning a low-scoring game at home as the defense continues to round into form.

LSU (4-0) 34, Georgia (2-1) 33: I heard on “SVP and Russilo” that Aaron Murray was actually looking for places to transfer when he thought he got beat out by Zach Mettenberger in the spring of 2010. I had no idea that Mettenberger was that good at the time. He got the boot from Georgia, and know is in charge of maybe the most potent offense I've seen from LSU in the last five years. He's finally playing like the highly-rated passer he was supposed to be, Cam Cameron has opened things up from the play calling department, and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are better than anyone Georgia has to cover them. Both defenses are young, and I think Georgia will score points. I just think LSU is just slightly better, and when you add in the potential revenge narrative with Mettenberger playing against the school that showed him the door, LSU will win.

                                             

(photo courtesy of google images)

                                                        Week 4 Player Rankings

( I've been using the same system for a couple of years now, and while it's not perfect, I feel it gives a somewhat accurate portrayal of how players are performing. I limit my rankings to teams in the top 25, and give out points based on how individual players rank in certain categories, and add in bonus points for hitting certain benchmarks in individual games (10 tackles, 2 Int's, 300 yards passing etc).

                                                          Defense Top 25:

(photo courtesy of google images)

25. Lamarcus Joyner, CB FSU 165
24. Tyrone Taylor, LB, Texas A&M 166
23. Blake Countess, CB, Michigan 171
22. Dion Bailey, S, USC 173
21. Stephone Anthony, LB Clemson 176
20. Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA 180
19. Keenan Graham, DE, UCLA 181
18. Armani Reeves, CB, Ohio St. 186
17. Tyler Scott, DE, Northwestern 187
16. Devon Kennard, LB, USC 189
15. Caleb Lavey, LB, Oklahoma St. 193
14. Noah Spence, DE, Ohio St. 196
13. Doran Grant, CB, Ohio St. 199
11. Ciante Evans CB, Nebraksa 202
11. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska 202
10. Chi Chi Aruguzo LB Northwestern 204
9. James Burgess LB Louisville 206
8. Tony Washington DE Oregon 240
7. Amarlo Herrera LB Georgia 249
6. Lorenzo Maudlin DE Louisville 259
4. Colin Ellis LB Northwestern 260
4. Brennan Beyer LB Michigan 260
3. Vic Beasley DE Clemson 264
2. Dean Lowry DE Norhwestern 277
1. Preston Brown LB Louiville 309

Offense Rankings

25. Ameer Abdullah RB Nebraska 110
25. Tahj Boyd QB Clemson 110
24.  Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 116
23. Mike Davis RB South Carolina 118
21 Odell Beckham WR LSU 122
21. Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor 122
20. Zach Mettenberger QB LSU 124
19. Bryce Petty QB Baylor 125
18. Jameis Winston QB FSU 126
17. Tyler Gaffney RB Stanford 127
16. J.W.Walsh QB Oklahoma St. 139
15. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M 143
14. James White RB Wisconsin 144
13. Devin Gardner QB Michigan 147
11. Jordan James RB UCLA 157
11. DeAnthony Thomas RB Oregon 157
10. Tommy Rees QB Notre Dame 160
9. Aaron Murray QB Georgia 161
7. Jarvis Landry WR LSU 169
7. Todd Gurley RB Georgia 169
5. Treveon Green RB Northwestern 177
5. Jordan Hall RB Ohio St. 177
4. Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M 191
3. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville 199
2. Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin 216
1. Marcus Mariota QB Oregon 259

(photo courtesy of google images)

Many of these rankings get pretty skewed at the beginning of the season with bye weeks and the lack of quality oppostiion making the numbers get a little bit out of whack. That being said, both Marcus Mariota and Preston Brown deserve to be in the top spots as of right now. Oregon's offense speaks for itself, and Mariota has been a magician both running and throwing. He has run for 15-262 with 4 TD's, with an average of 17 yards a carry. He's also thrown for 889 yards with 7 TD's and 0 Int's.

Manziel could very easily catch him as the Aggies will have to put up numbers on his side of the ball to win. Big 10 running backs Melvin Gordon, Jordan Hall, and Treveon Green are all in the top five for now, but also might slip slightlywith other running backs on their rosters either coming back from injuries, or simply taking carries away from them. Jarvis Landry is the top WR so far, but keep an eye on Mike Evans or teammate Odell Beckham to maybe move past him.

Defensively, Preston Brown takes the top spot with 29 tackles, 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble. The top 10 is littered with players from Louisville and Northwestern, as they've both created a bunch of turnovers and gotten a bunch of sacks. I doubt that the Wildcats will have 4 in the top 10 every week, but they've been really good so far.