Colleg Football Midseason Recap

So we are somehow halfway through the college football season. I have collected 585 dollars from stats inc for sitting on my ass imputing statistics from the various games I watch on Saturdays. Notre Dame has lost twice as many games as they lost last year. Alabama is still insufferable. Les Miles is still awesome. Jameis Winston might pull a Manziel and win the Heisman.  Everything is still a crap shoot. What follows is an attempt to pick out who's going to win the 1600 after we're 800 meters into the race (goofy running analogy brought to you by my woeful distance running career in high school).

 

ACC: Obviously the Atlantic race is more than likely going to be settled on Saturday night in Clemson. Do you go with the senior QB at home, or the freshman nicknamed “Jameis Christ?” Honestly, these teams seem to be very equal on paper. FSU is averaging 54 a game while allowing 12, and Clemson is scoring 41 and giving up 16 against a harder schedule. Clemson gets more turnovers and sacks, but FSU gives up less points. Both teams have multiple receivers at their disposal. In the Coastal, an undefeated Miami team gets Virginia Tech at home on November 9^th. I just don't think Tech's sometimes erratic offense will travel well down South, so despite their stellar defense, Miami will win. This sets up a showdown between Miami and …....Clemson in the ACC championship. Clemson will win and get to a BCS game, but will not go to the national championship game because they will lose to South Carolina. Meanwhile, Miami will lose to FSU and each team in the ACC will have at least one loss.

 

AAC: Louisville might have lost out on their slim title game hopes by struggling against the likes of Rutgers and Kentucky. With a schedule this week, they literally have to win 70-0 every week to convince people they are good enough in this sick and twisted world where there is no playoff for them to try and prove themselves against the big boys (March Madness>football). Regardless, they aren't losing any time soon and will have to wait for a BCS game to play someone that isn't derptastic.

 

Big 10: Mediocrity is entertaining, right? Ohio State is ahead in the leaders division, with nothing outside of a game in Ann Arbor standing in their way from winning their side. Even with one loss, I'm assuming they'll get the tiebreaker over Wisconsin since they beat them. I'm too lazy to look up the tie breaking rules so we'll just go with that. Indiana and Penn St might be frisky, but they won't win. On the other side, it's looking like someone out of the triumvirate of “teams ranked between 25 and 30 in the country” to challenge the Buckeyes in the title tilt. Nebraska gets Michigan State at home, Michigan State gets Michigan at home, Michigan gets Nebraska at home, so basically you can go with a coin flip or some form of paper, rock, scissoring to find this answer. If I had to guess, I'd go with Nebraska. It looks like a defense with 8 JC's/freshman contributing might be starting to jell.

 

Big 12: Baylor all day son. Sorry that was the first thing that popped into my head. The standings say Texas Tech and Texas are also undefeated. I kind of like Texas Tech, but they do all the same things as Baylor, but just don't do them quite as well. Texas went from being a national joke, to being good all of a sudden because they won one game? Against a team missing the heart and soul of their defense that had been playing out of their heads? Baylor gets everyone from the top five in the league at home except for Oklahoma St, so I think they win the conference. They might lose a game in there, but everyone else will lose two. Texas will lose more than two.

 

PAC 12: I really liked Stanford coming into the year. I just thought that their defense was too stout, and that losing Chip Kelly would hurt Oregon. Methinks I underestimated Niketown however; as Oregon looks as good as they ever have. Oregon St. still has a 0 in the loss column, but Stanford will beat them. Oregon is heading towards being 13-0 and heading to Pasadena to play whichever 1 loss SEC team they get matched up against. In the South, UCLA will emerge. Everyone else is bad, and I can't take ASU seriously after they got handled by a team quarterbacked by Tommy Rees.

 

SEC: Like everyone else, I'm kind of sick of all the countless SEC hype and slobbering. At the same time, it is the best league and home to the best games by far. When someone who doesn't watch college football wants a guide on how to get into it because “there are too many teams to keep track of,” I point them in the direction of the SEC. Eight teams in the top 25 kind of speaks for itself. Any number of things could happen, but I really like how LSU's young defense looked against Florida. With the offense they have being better than it's been in years, I think they can beat Bama and win the West. I like South Carolina to come out of the East, simply because Florida's offense is bad, Georgia is beat up, and Missouri is just a cute story. If LSU slips up in the championship game, Alabama will vulture their way into a game against Oregon for all the marbles, hopefully coming away with a loss of about 586-3.

 

Player Rankings:
( I have a system in ranking players that admittedly isn't perfect. It tends to crystalize better as the season goes on, when everyone has played an even amount of games. At the midseason mark, here's how it stands by position).

 

QB

1. Marcus Mariota, Soph. Oregon ( 100-165 1724 yards, 17 td's 0 Int. 41-426 8 td's rushing)
Mariota puts the video in the video game that is Oregon's offense. He has to be considered the Heisman frontrunner at this point.

2. Johnny Manziel Soph. Texas A&M ( 131-179 1835 14-5, 66-466 5TD's)                                                                           (google images)
I could write about Money Manziel (copyright Bomani Jones) all day long. Instead, just watch the game against Bama if you have any questions about the validity of Manziel's ability to play quarterback.

3.      Teddy Bridgewater, Jr. Louisville (125-176 1872 18-2)

4.      Jameis Winston Frosh. FSU (90-123 1441 17-2)

5.      Tajh Boyd Sr. Clemson (123-185 1783 15-2)

(Next 3: Aaron Murray, Zack Mettenberger, Devin Gardner)

RB

1. Mike Davis Soph. South Carolina (111-742 9 TD’s)
Davis has stepped in for Marcus Lattimore and arguably been more productive. The sophomore is averaging 6.7 yards a pop and has been the best running back in the country.

 2. Melvin Gordon Soph. Wisconsin (90-870 8 TD’s)

 Gordon has gone from someone who the Badgers used primarily on reverses and outside runs, to someone who has been the primary ball carrier, making Wiscy forget Montee Ball ever existed.

      3.      Todd Gurley Soph. Georgia (71-450 4 TD’s)

4.      Bishop Sankey Jr. Washington (159-899 9 TD’s)

5.      Jeremy Hill Sr. Ohio St.(98-715 9 TD’s)

(Next 3: Jordan Hall, Tyler Gaffney, Lache Seastrunk)

 

WR

1. Jarvis Landry Jr. LSU (46-674 7 TD’s)

It looks like the race for the number one wideout is going to be between teammates, as Landry and Beckham have gotten off to tremendous starts for the Tigers. Landry is slightly ahead only on number of catches and touchdowns. LSU is clearly a much different team on offense this season, and these two receivers are one of the main reasons why.

 2. Odell Beckham Jr. LSU (37-733 6 TD’s)

Beckham separates himself as maybe the biggest weapon LSU has simply because he can also be a gamechanger in the return game. He’s averaging 25 yards a kickoff return, and I can see him breaking off a long one in an important game just like the Honey Badger circa 2011.

 

3.      Mike Evans Soph. Texas A&M (32-737 5 TD's)

4.      Sammie Watkins Jr. Clemson (36-582 4 TD's)

5.      Josh Huff Sr. Oregon (27-552 5 TD's)

(Next 3: Jeremy Gallon, Tony Jones, Corey Brown)

 

(photo courtesy of google images)

DL:

1.Vic Beasley Jr. Clemson (20 Tackles, 9 Sacks, 12 TFL’s 2 Forced Fumbles, 5 PBU’s)
A defensive lineman from the state of South Carolina has been an absolute terror this season, but he wears orange and not red. Beasley has built off of a strong finish last year to simply become a dominant force as a pass rusher, which is a big reason why Clemson is number 3 in the country.
2.  Lorenzo Maudlin Jr. Louisville (17 Tackles, 6.5 Sacks, 8.5 TFL’s 3 Forced Fumbles)
The safeties got most of the preseason love for Louisville’s defense, but Maudlin, and to a lesser degree, Marcus Smith, have lived in the backfield for the undefeated Cardinals.

3.      Dean Lowry Jr. Northwestern (16 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 2 INT, 2 Forced Fumbles, 5 PBU’s)

4.      Tony Washington Jr. Oregon ( 29 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 6 TFL’s, 3 Forced Fumbles)

5.      Tyler Scott Sr. Northwestern ( 24 Tackles, 4 Sacks, 6 TFL’s, 2 Forced Fumbles)

(Next 3: Marcus Smith, Dante Fowler, Noah Spence)

LB:  1. Preston Brown Sr. Louisville (39 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 7.5 TFL’s, 1 Forced Fumble)

Brown was a 1^st team all AAC LB in the preseason and the 22^nd best inside linebacker in terms of draft stock according to soothsayer Phil Steele, and he has done nothing to change anyone’s mind playing on a defense that is sturdy on all three levels.

2. Colin Ellis Jr. Northwestern (40 Tackles, 2 INT, 6 PBU’s)
Ellis and some of the Northwestern boys will slide slightly as long as they are out of the top 25, as I use this as part of my basis for my rankings. That being said, he parlayed a strong first game with 2 picks against Cal into this spot. The Wildcats have created a lot of turnovers, and Ellis has been right in the middle of it.

 3. Anthony Barr Sr. UCLA (27 Tackles, 4 Sacks, 4 Forced Fumbles, 10 TFL’s)

4. Amarlo Herrera Jr. Georgia ( 55 Tackles, 5 PBU’s)

5. Ryan Shazier Jr. Ohio St. (47 Tackles, 2 Forced Fumbles, 8 TFL’s)

(Next 3: Stephone Anthony, Chi Chi Ariguzo, Caleb Lavey)

 

DB:

1. Doran Grant Jr. Ohio St. (28 Tackles, 2 INT, 1 Forced Fumble, 7 PBU’s)

Ryan Shazier gets a lot of the hype, but Grant has been very good as well. After getting some burn last year, he stepped in for Travis Howard and has paired with Bradley Roby to produce maybe the best corner tandem in the Big 10.

2. Vernon Hargreaves Frosh. Florida (16 Tackles, 3 INT, 8 PBU’s)

Hargreaves was a top 10-20 recruit depending on who’s rankings you looked at, and has more than lived up to the hype, with 3 interceptions and 8 PBU’s, both of which lead the team.

3. Blake Countess Jr. Michigan (24 Tackles, 4 INT, 6 PBU’s)

4. Ibraheim Campbell Jr. Northwestern (38 Tackles, 4 INT, 6 PBU’s)

5. Armani Reeves Soph. Ohio St. ( 12 Tackles, 1 INT, 6 PBU)

5. Julian Wilson Jr. Oklahoma (12 Tackles, 2 INT, 5 PBU)

(Next 3: Tramain Jacobs, Calvin Pryor, Bradley Roby)

 

 

Top 20 Offensive Players

1.      Marcus Mariota

2.      Johnny Manziel

3.      Teddy Bridgewater

4.      Mike Davis

5.      Jameis Winston

6.      Tajh Boyd

7.      Melvin Gordon

8.      Jarvis Landry

9.      Odell Beckham

10.  Mike Evans

11.  Aaron Murray

12.  Zach Mettenberger

13.  Devin Gardner

14.  Todd Gurley

15.  Bishop Sankey

16.  Jeremy Hill

17.  Bryce Petty

18.  Jordan Hall

19.  Lache Seastrunk

20.  Tyler Gaffney

 

Top 20 Defensive Players:

1.      Vic Beasley

2.      Lorenzo Maudlin

3.      Preston Brown

4.      Dean Lowry

5.      Tony Washington

6.      Colin Ellis

7.      Anthony Barr

8.      Amarlo Herrera

9.      Ryan Shazier

10.  Stephone Anthony

11.  Tyler Scott

12.  Chi Chi Ariguzo

13.  Caleb Lavey

14.  Doran Grant

15.  Vernon Hargreaves

16.  Marcus Smith

17.  Blake Countess

18.  Dante Fowler

19.  Brennan Beyer

20.  Trent Murphy

 

Week 5 College Football Preview

                                          Week 5 College Football Preview

To cap off my writing about college football this season, I decided to let four weeks worth of games play out before I offered any attempt at any type of coherent analysis. You're taking a big leap of faith by assuming anything I say is “coherent” on the sport, but regardless this week I'm going to give some predictions and unveil my first edition of player rankings based off of my OCD statistical tallying. In future weeks, the formula will include some power rankings, combined with some picks and updates on player rankings. Wtihout further ado.....



                                                                  Picks

Arizona St. (2-1) 20, USC (3-1) 7: USC has a really good defense. They've only given up an average of 11 points a game, and 230.5 yards a game so far. On the other side, Cody Kessler is horrible. Marquise Lee is making the same face that Larry Fitzgerald made all last year after John Skelton threw the ball 58 feet over his head again on 3^rd and 12. At this point he's probably actively scouring the streets of Compton trying to see if the dude who played QB for his Pop Warner team when he was 12 can get into USC in time to learn the offense. Taylor Kelly and ASU won't be able to do much, but they'll do enough to get the win at home. They'll struggle to move the ball, but USC doesn't have nearly enough on offense to win on the road here.

Alabama (3-0) 38, Ole Miss (3-0) 31: I'm on board when it comes to Ole Miss. I think they will beat either LSU or Texas A&M. They have so much good young talent it's hard not to take notice. That being said, Alabama is still Alabama. I think the Rebs scare the crap out Saban's boys, but take a close loss here that they almost need to fully develop the scar tissue needed to be truly great in the future. I think this may be the best game of the weekend, and I think Laquon Treadwell (shouts to Crete, IL) and the other WR's will torch an overmatched Bama secondary. I just think Ole Miss just isn't quite there just yet. The Tide win it in a close one.

Ohio St. (4-0) 45, Wisconsin (3-1) 24: Wisconsin hasn't lost a beat with Montee Ball moving on to play with Peyton Manning. They are averaging 8.0 yards a carry, and with Melvin Gordon, James White, and freshman Corey Clement, they have the 2^nd, 14^th, and 24^th best offensive players in my esteemed player rankings. On the Buckeye side, they will get Braxton Miller back and have multiple receivers to get the ball to against the Badger secondary. The reason Ohio State wins is the fact that they can shut down the run just enough to force Joe Stave to have to beat them through the air. With Jared Abbrederis being their only real threat, I think LB Ryan Shazier, and a really young and talented front seven hold the run game in check enough for Miller and his receivers to make enough plays to break things open in the second half.

Notre Dame (3-1) 23, Oklahoma (3-0) 10: I'm sure everyone in America is picking Oklahoma unless you're an unabashed Notre Dame homer like myself. My theory on this one is simple. If ND can win in Oklahoma last year against Landry Jones and a team that I feel was much better than this year's unit, then I don't see them losing at home this year. Blake Bell will not throw for over 400 yards against the Irish D, and I think Notre Dame follows the same template as last week's win against Michigan State, winning a low-scoring game at home as the defense continues to round into form.

LSU (4-0) 34, Georgia (2-1) 33: I heard on “SVP and Russilo” that Aaron Murray was actually looking for places to transfer when he thought he got beat out by Zach Mettenberger in the spring of 2010. I had no idea that Mettenberger was that good at the time. He got the boot from Georgia, and know is in charge of maybe the most potent offense I've seen from LSU in the last five years. He's finally playing like the highly-rated passer he was supposed to be, Cam Cameron has opened things up from the play calling department, and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are better than anyone Georgia has to cover them. Both defenses are young, and I think Georgia will score points. I just think LSU is just slightly better, and when you add in the potential revenge narrative with Mettenberger playing against the school that showed him the door, LSU will win.

                                             

(photo courtesy of google images)

                                                        Week 4 Player Rankings

( I've been using the same system for a couple of years now, and while it's not perfect, I feel it gives a somewhat accurate portrayal of how players are performing. I limit my rankings to teams in the top 25, and give out points based on how individual players rank in certain categories, and add in bonus points for hitting certain benchmarks in individual games (10 tackles, 2 Int's, 300 yards passing etc).

                                                          Defense Top 25:

(photo courtesy of google images)

25. Lamarcus Joyner, CB FSU 165
24. Tyrone Taylor, LB, Texas A&M 166
23. Blake Countess, CB, Michigan 171
22. Dion Bailey, S, USC 173
21. Stephone Anthony, LB Clemson 176
20. Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA 180
19. Keenan Graham, DE, UCLA 181
18. Armani Reeves, CB, Ohio St. 186
17. Tyler Scott, DE, Northwestern 187
16. Devon Kennard, LB, USC 189
15. Caleb Lavey, LB, Oklahoma St. 193
14. Noah Spence, DE, Ohio St. 196
13. Doran Grant, CB, Ohio St. 199
11. Ciante Evans CB, Nebraksa 202
11. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska 202
10. Chi Chi Aruguzo LB Northwestern 204
9. James Burgess LB Louisville 206
8. Tony Washington DE Oregon 240
7. Amarlo Herrera LB Georgia 249
6. Lorenzo Maudlin DE Louisville 259
4. Colin Ellis LB Northwestern 260
4. Brennan Beyer LB Michigan 260
3. Vic Beasley DE Clemson 264
2. Dean Lowry DE Norhwestern 277
1. Preston Brown LB Louiville 309

Offense Rankings

25. Ameer Abdullah RB Nebraska 110
25. Tahj Boyd QB Clemson 110
24.  Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 116
23. Mike Davis RB South Carolina 118
21 Odell Beckham WR LSU 122
21. Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor 122
20. Zach Mettenberger QB LSU 124
19. Bryce Petty QB Baylor 125
18. Jameis Winston QB FSU 126
17. Tyler Gaffney RB Stanford 127
16. J.W.Walsh QB Oklahoma St. 139
15. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M 143
14. James White RB Wisconsin 144
13. Devin Gardner QB Michigan 147
11. Jordan James RB UCLA 157
11. DeAnthony Thomas RB Oregon 157
10. Tommy Rees QB Notre Dame 160
9. Aaron Murray QB Georgia 161
7. Jarvis Landry WR LSU 169
7. Todd Gurley RB Georgia 169
5. Treveon Green RB Northwestern 177
5. Jordan Hall RB Ohio St. 177
4. Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M 191
3. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville 199
2. Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin 216
1. Marcus Mariota QB Oregon 259

(photo courtesy of google images)

Many of these rankings get pretty skewed at the beginning of the season with bye weeks and the lack of quality oppostiion making the numbers get a little bit out of whack. That being said, both Marcus Mariota and Preston Brown deserve to be in the top spots as of right now. Oregon's offense speaks for itself, and Mariota has been a magician both running and throwing. He has run for 15-262 with 4 TD's, with an average of 17 yards a carry. He's also thrown for 889 yards with 7 TD's and 0 Int's.

Manziel could very easily catch him as the Aggies will have to put up numbers on his side of the ball to win. Big 10 running backs Melvin Gordon, Jordan Hall, and Treveon Green are all in the top five for now, but also might slip slightlywith other running backs on their rosters either coming back from injuries, or simply taking carries away from them. Jarvis Landry is the top WR so far, but keep an eye on Mike Evans or teammate Odell Beckham to maybe move past him.

Defensively, Preston Brown takes the top spot with 29 tackles, 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble. The top 10 is littered with players from Louisville and Northwestern, as they've both created a bunch of turnovers and gotten a bunch of sacks. I doubt that the Wildcats will have 4 in the top 10 every week, but they've been really good so far.

College Football Top 50

                                                     College Football Top 50

 (google images)

With the season nine weeks old, and with countless BCS scenarios still playing themselves out in the next couple of Saturdays, I felt like it was time to take a look at who the top 50 players in the game are as of right now. This isn't NFL projection, nor is it in-depth in terms of looking at game film to see how the left tackle at Louisiana Tech handles blitz pickups. It's merely a list going strictly by the numbers. Without further ado, here's my list of the top 25 defensive and offensive players in the land after 8 weeks.

25. O- Ameer Abdullah, Soph. RB, Nebraska
       D- Arthur Brown, Sr. LB, Kansas St.
Abdullah has stepped in with Rex Burkhead missing some time and has been a catalyst for a Nebraska offense that has averaged 42 points a game with 615 yards and 7 TD's. Brown anchors the Kansas State defense that is the only team with someone from all three levels of the D ranked in my top 25. Brown leads the team with 55 tackles.

24. O- Denard Robinson, Sr. QB, Michigan
      D- Josh Francis, Sr. LB, West Virginia
"Shoelace" played horrible against my Notre Dame squad, and has had his issues throwing the ball with 9 interceptions. He makes up for it with 900 yards rushing, as Michigan comes attempts to come back from some tough losses early. As decrepit as the Mountaineers defense has been, Francis has made some plays with 3 sacks and 10.5 TFL's.


23. O- E.J. Manuel Sr. QB, FSU
      D- Nigel Malone, Sr. CB, Kansas St.
Manuel has been climbing the charts lately with his improved production. He's thrown for 2,033 yards and 14 TD's. Malone leads the Wildcats with 5 PBU's, and has 2 picks and a forced fumble.

22. O- Robert Woods, Jr. WR, USC
      D- Jordan Richards, Soph. S, Stanford
Sometimes the forgotten man in USC's high octane attack, he had his best game of the year against Colorado last week. He now has 44 catches for 492 yards and 9 TD's. Richards is the only safety in the top 25, with 8 PBU's and 2 picks.

21. O- Tajh Boyd, Jr. QB, Clemson
      D- Alex Okafor, Sr. DE, Texas
Getting Sammie Watkins back up to speed after some lingering injuries and the horrid DB's he gets to play against in the ACC make Boyd a threat to crack the top ten at the end of the season. He's up to 20 touchdown passes after beating Wake Forest thursday night. Okafor lost his partner in crime in Jackson Jeffcoat for the year, meaning he needs to probably double his current sack total of 6 for the Longhorns to finish on a positive note.

(google images)

20 O- Marcus Lattimore, Jr. RB, South Carolina
     D- Jason Verrett, Jr. CB, TCU
Lattimore has gone from Heisman possibility, to someone who's once again battling injuries. He still has double digit touchdowns for a fading offense that doesn't have many other weapons. Verrett was all over the field against Texas Tech, and checks in with 4 Int's and 11 PBU's on the season for a young defense that could be absolutely nasty next year.

19. O- A.J. McCarron, Jr. QB, Alabama
      D- Jackson Jeffcoat, Jr. DE, Texas
McCarron doesn't have the stats that jump off the page, simply because that's not how the Tide do business. He does however, have 16 TD passes and 0 Int's. His team is also a juggernaut, so the Heisman buzz will continue. I do think the Int streak ends today with Jonathan Banks getting him once or twice for Mississippi St. As I mentioned, Jeffcoat is out for the year. He now has an interesting decision about whether to go pro or not. He finishes the season with 9.5 TFL's and 4 sacks.

18. O- Taylor Martinez, Jr. QB, Nebraska
      D- Calvin Pryor, Soph. S, Louisville
Martinez has shown improvement throwing the ball, so he's ahead of fellow dual threat QB Robinson for now. Pryor has been the best player on Louisville's very young defense. Pryor has 3 forced fumbles, 2 picks, and leads the team with 53 tackles before last nights game against Cincy.

17. O- Marcus Mariotta, Frosh. QB, Oregon
      D- Will Compton, Sr. LB, Nebraska
Mariotta could hop up some spots when he plays some actual competition, as he's been getting pulled early in a lot of the Ducks' easy wins so far. He's arguably the best freshman in the country. Compton has stepped in for Lavonte David and contributed a team-high 58 tackles for the Huskers.

16. O- John Hubert, Jr. RB, Kansas St.
      D- C.J. Mosley, Jr. LB, Alabama
Hubert gets lost in the shuffle with all of the "Octomus Klein" Heisman hype, but he is simply a banger that churns out yards for a unit that loves to pound the rock. He's at 663 yards with 8 TD's so far on the season. Mosley leads the Tide in tackles, and is getting a lot of NFL buzz on an extremely deep defensive unit.

15. O- Matt Barkley, Sr. QB, USC
      D- Bradley Roby, Soph, CB, Ohio St.
Barkley hasn't lived up to expectations, but if he continues to have games where he goes 19-20 with 4 touchdown passes, he'll be in the top ten at the end of the year. He's now up to 22 TD's on the year, and has the weapons to easily get to 40. Roby leads the Buckeyes with 12 PBU's and has scored 3 TD's.

14. O- Todd Gurley, Frosh. RB, Georgia
      D- Dee Millner, Jr. CB, Alabama
Gurley will be fighting it out with Marcus Mariotta for the freshman of the year on the offensive side of the ball. He's splitting carries with fellow Diaper Dandy Keith Marshall, but has put up 622 yards and 9 touchdowns to date. I'll be really interested to see how he does against Florida's stout run D in Jacksonville today. Millner has double digit PBU's, 2 picks, and essentially is the latest lock-down corner gettin a lot of draft hype in Bama.

13. O- Mike Gillislee, Sr. RB, Florida
     D- Kevin Minter, Jr. LB, LSU
Gillislee has toiled in obscurity for a couple of seasons, but has had a breakout campaign in his senior season. He's at 652 yards and 7 touchdowns right now. Minter has really stepped up and been a tackling machine for the Tigers. His production jumps off the charts on a team where the Sam Montgomery's and Barkevious Mingo's of the world get more NFL love. Minter has 75 tackles, 4 PBU's 3 sacks, a pick, a forced fumble, and 9.5 TFL's. He's stuffing the stat sheet and then some for one of the best defensive units in the land.

12. O- Andre Ellington, Sr. RB, Clemson
      D- Adam Davis, Sr. DE, Kansas St.
Ellington gets overshadowed by the Clemson passing game, but he's been just as good as the receivers on a team that could end up with only one loss. Davis and fellow DL mate Meshak Williams have been terrors for Kansas St, with Davis totaling 3 forced fumbles and 3.5 sacks.

11. O- Aaron Murray, Jr. QB, Georgia
      D- Stephon Tuitt, Soph. DE, Notre Dame
Murray lost his best receiver in Michael Bennett to injury, but is probably the best QB in the SEC. He's thrown for 1,914 yards and 16 TD's to date. The matchup today with the Gators' secondary looms large for Murray's NFL stock, and Georgia's season. Manti Te'o gets all the hype, but Tuitt has been outstanding rushing the passer for the Irish. To date, he's registered 8 sacks, and has made Irish fans completely forget classmate Aaron Lynch's departure to USF.

10. O- Stepfan Taylor, Sr. RB, Stanford
      D- Devonte Fields, Frosh, DE, TCU
Taylor, much like Gillislee, is an extremely underated offensive standout at the national level. He only needs 154 yards to get to 1,000 for the second straight year. Fields has come out of nowhere to have a comparable freshman year to that of one Jadevon Clowney. To put into perspective, Phil Steele only had him as the 30th best defensive lineman in his class, and he's now the 10th best defensive player nationally based on my numbers. These numbers include a whopping 13.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles.

9.  O- Le'Veon Bell, Jr. RB, Michigan St.
    D- Ryan Shazier, Soph. LB, Ohio St.
Bell did a lot of his damage early on, and both he, and his team have cooled off. I look for him to drop quite a bit the rest of the season. Shazier leads top 25 teams in tackles with 76, and has shown versitility with 8 pass breakups. Only a sophomore, I look for Shazier to get lots of NFL hype by next season.

8. O- Colin Klein, Sr. QB, Kansas St.
    D- Terrence Garvin, Sr. LB, West Virginia
Klein is starting to get some Tebow-type love and is arguably the Heisman front-runner after his team smacked around Geno Smith and his boys last week. He showed, albeit against a horrible defense, that he can do more than run as he threw it for 300 plus. Garvin plays for that defense I spoke of, and has 4 sacks from his linebacker spot. It's amazing that anybody from that shitshow of a unit is ranked anywhere, but believe it or not, Garvin has made some plays.

7. O- DeAndre Hopkins, Jr. WR, Clemson
    D- Manti Te'o, Sr. LB, Notre Dame
Hopkins has gone from second in command behind Sammie Watkins, to arguably and equal if not better player. He leads all top 25 teams with 909 receiving yards, and is strong candidate to go high in the draft whenver he comes out. Te'o is the face of the Notre Dame resurrgence, and arguably the face of college football right now. The personal tragedies aside, Te'o has 69 tackles and 4 interceptions as he captains what may be the best defense in all of college football.

6. O- Stedman Bailey, Jr. WR,  West Virginia
    D- Tank Carradine, Sr. DE, FSU
Taking the whole season into account, and not just the last two weeks is what one has to do when evaluating the West Virginia boys. Bailey has been tremendous as both he and Tavon Austin should both get to 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns with ease. Tank Carradine has stepped in for injured Brandon Jenkins to pair with Bjoern Werner as probably the best defensive end tandem in all of the college game. He leads the team tackles, and has contributed 8 sacks.

5. O- Kenjon Barner, Sr. RB, Oregon
    D- Jadevon Clowney, Soph, DE, South Carolina
Barner's numbers are insane, with 870 yards and 12 touchdowns. If he played for a team with less weapons, they would arguably be even better. Clowney has battled injuries lately, but he leads top 25 teams with 14.5 TFL's.

4. O- Tavon Austin, Sr. WR, West Virginia
    D- Iko Ekpre-Olomu, Soph. CB, Oregon
As I mentioned earlier, Austin needs to be evaluated based on his whole body of work. Even with the collective terribleness against K-State, he was the only Mountaineer to score a touchdown. All in all, he's a threat both as a receiver and as a return man. Ekpre-Olomu is a relative unknown, but with 4 forced fumbles and 10 PBU's, he's been a standout on a defense that doesn't get nearly the amount of love it deserves.

3. O- Marqice Lee, Soph. WR, USC
    D- Morgan Breslin, Jr. DE, USC
Lee barely edges out Austin for top wide receiver honors, as he has raced past Robert Woods as Matt Barkley's main go to guy. Right now he has 60 catches for 784 yards and 8 TD's. Breslin emerged from the JC ranks to come in and overshadow some of the other higher publicized linemen on the team to the tune of 8 sacks and 12 TFL's.

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2. O- Geno Smith, Sr. QB, West Virginia
    D- Bjoern Werner, Jr. DE, FSU
Geno Geno Geno, I don't even know where to begin. I don't question the numbers, even though it's a system that's meant for the QB to average about 9 million yards a game. What I do question is leadership. He looked like he doesn't really have what it takes in that department last week. He needs to stop forcing things if he wants to get back into the Heisman race. "The Germinator," has been an absolute terror for the Seminoles, again taking up some of the Brandon Jenkins slack to produce 8 sacks and 11.5 TFL's. Werner had good numbers in limited snaps earlier in his career, but now has become the best D-lineman in the country according to my metrics.

1. O- Braxton Miller, Soph. QB, Ohio St.
    D- Jarvis Jones, Jr. LB, Georgia
Miller is doing the Denard Robinson thing far better than Mr. Robinson himself this year. Specifically, he's accounted for 21 touchdowns and over 2300 yards for a Buckeyes offense that has been the key in the teams' unexpected 8-0 start. Miller could easily win the Heisman in his sophomore campaign, much like what that Tebow guy did under Urban Meyer years ago. I watched Jarvis Jones single-handedly keep Georgia going on D earlier this year with all of suspensions leaving them shorthanded. He arguably won the Mizzou game by himself. To date, Jones has 36 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL's and 3 forced fumbles. He also has picked off a pass and has 2 breakups, showing that he's not just a pass rusher. I look for him to have a huge day today against the Gators, cementing his status as the top defensive player in the land.

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                                                            Best by Position:
QB- Braxton Miller
RB- Kenjon Barner
WR- Marqise Lee
DE-Bjoern Werner
LB- Jarvis Jones
CB- Iko Ekpre-Olomu
S- Jordan Richards

College Football Week 3 Quick Picks

                                               Week 3 Picks



 #1 Alabama (2-0) at Arkansas (1-1): What was supposed to be the game of the weekend has now lost pretty much all of its luster due to a little school named Louisiana-Monroe, and the head injury to the Hogs' Sr. QB Tyler Wilson. Now, this is going to be an absolute bloodbath. Bama's D that lost six starters has looked...just as good if not better than last year's unit. Keep an eye on CB Dee Millner to come away with one or two picks. Alabama 42, Arkansas 13.

UNC (1-1) at Louisville (2-0): I'll refrain from discussing UNC's NCAA issues, or discussing my failed two month stint living in Lawville (you have to pronounce it like you have marbles in your mouth). Sticking with the foosballl only, Teddy Bridgewater is really good. The UNC D has some playmakers, including Stafford County's own Tim Scott (Colonial Forge) playing corner. He has two picks on the year, but Bridgewater has yet to throw any, completing 82% of his passes so far. This could be close, especially after Carolina lost to a shitty Wake Forest team last week. Bridgewater, and safteies Hakeem Smith and Calvin Pryor will be the difference makers for LVL. Louisville 24, UNC 21.

USC (2-0) at Stanford (2-0): Stanford has won four in a row against the men of Troy, but they also don't have that Luck dude anymore. I expect this one to be close, as USC showed last week against Syracuse that they still have some question marks on D. That being said, they have too many weapons on the other side of the ball. I think Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas will lead the way in stopping Silas Redd, but the Barkley-Woods, and Barkley-Lee combos will be good for at least 3 touchdowns. USC 35, Stanford 24

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Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (2-0): To simplify this one without getting swayed by the wit of the signs from Knoxville on the set of college gameday (to recap: lots of quality jorts barbs and a Nickelback reference referring to Will Muschamp's musical choices), I like Tyler Bray much better than Jeff Driskel. With everything else pretty much being even, I think this and having homefield is worth enough for the Vols to get the win. Orange Pants 21, Jorts 17

Notre Dame(2-0) at Michigan St. (2-0): I'm a homer. I'm not going to hide the fact that I'm a homer. I am scared shitless of Notre Dame's lack of experience in the secondary, but I'm also not scared of Andrew Maxwell or his receivers. I will preface this pick by saying as long as Brian Kelly doesn't do Brian Kelly type of things and get in the way, I pick the Irish in an upset. Dealing with two horrible personal losses this week, Sr. LB Manti Te'o will be all over the field. Notre Dame 17, Michigan St. 13.

Early Top 5's

There haven't been too many significant games,  and with starters only playing 2-3 quarters due to being up by 50 at halftime, the stats are slightly skewed. That being said, some have stood out more than others after two weeks.

Offense:
1. Braxton Miller, Soph. QB Ohio St.
2. Matt Barkley Sr. QB USC
2. Le'Veon Bell Jr. RB Michigan St.
4. Taylor Martinez Jr. QB Nebraska
5. DeAndre Hopkins Jr. WR, Clemson
5. Marquise Lee Soph. WR, USC
(Miller and Bell have been absolute workhorses so far, rushing for 302 and 280 yards respectively. Barkley to Lee sounds like it might bring a Heisman in the early going, while Martinez came back to earth last week against a resurgent UCLA defense. Hopkins has proven so far that Clemson has two future high draft picks at receiver, stepping up without Sammie Watkins).

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Defense:
1. Jarvis Jones Jr. LB, Georgia
2. Bjorn Werner Jr. DE, FSU
3. Ross Rasner Sr. S Arkansas
4. Morgan Breslin Jr. DE, USC
5. Terrence Garvin Sr. S/LB WVU
(Jarvis Jones needs a nickname. We'll just go with J twice for right now. Whatever you want to call him, Jones has 16 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 Int, 2 forced fumbles, 2.5 TFL's and 2 PBU's on the season. On a D that is still missing 4 starters, he literally put his team on his back last week against a fired up Mizzou unit. Werner has 5 sacks already, albeit against glorified D8 schools. Rasner has good numbers on a D that doesn't have much else, while Breslin and Garvin also have been impressive).

Trade Deadline Victors and Epic Failures

I'm breaking almost a nine month silence on the sports blog I'd created and then promptly ignored. The combo effect of having a bunch of free time again, coupled with just a general sense of narcissism wanting to see my own name attached to something I wrote have miraculously led me back. So without further ado, my look at the trade deadline winners and losers

                                                            Winners

New York Yankees: Some may scoff, but I really thought stealing Ichiro away from the Mariners might have been the best deal anyone made. He's aging, and his slash and run style losses effectiveness when one is about to turn 39. Howevvvaaaa (Stephen A. Smith voice), I'm fairly certain I could hit a HR out to right field in Yankee Stadium, and its always been said that Ichiro can hit for much more power than he shows in games. Throw in the fact that he's still a better than average defensive outfielder, and gives the Yanks a much needed stolen base threat, and I feel like he's going to be a major part of the Yankees going anywhere in October.

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Los Angeles Angels: I'm going to keep this one as simple as possible. I challenge anyone to name a better 4-man playoff ready pitching rotation that what the Halos have going right now in picking up Zack Grienke. They can now throw Weaver, Grienke, Wilson, and Dan Haren out there, while let's say they matchup with the Rangers foursome of Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Ryan Dempster, and Derek Holland. Their bullpen worries me, as evidenced by the slow-pitch softball games that broke out in Arlington the last four days, but with Trout, Pujols et al ensuring that they won't get shut down offensively very often,  I'd say they're my favorites to win the AL pennant.

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San Francisco Giants: As of right now, I'm predicting an Angels-Giants World Series. The problem in San Fran was that Melky Cabrera, Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval were the only people in the lineup that would scare me as an opposing manager. Now, in adding Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro, you get a top 10 NL outfielder and a scrappy utility-type middle infielder. They now have a better offense than their championship team of two years ago.

                                                      

                                                             Other Winners

Detroit Tigers: Adding Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante will help shore up a major problem area at 2B, and Sanchez gives them another potential Doug Fister type addition to an already strong staff.

Atlanta Braves: As a Cubs fan, I know the streaky nature of Paul Maholm. I like the Reed Johnson pickup more. He's the prototype for a 4^th OF, someone who leads the league in pinch hits, and will play outstanding defense. If Maholm gives them what he's been giving the Cubbies the last month, they may catch the Nats.

Cincinnati Reds: Marshall-Broxton-Chapman. Sounds a lot like the template for how the Cards did business last season.


                                                         Call Me Maybe

Chicago White Sox: The Youka was on fire, but has come back to earth a bit. Francisco Liriano is a little too inconsistent for my liking. They could have used some bullpen help.

Pittsburgh Pirates: They took chances on Gaby Sanchez coming back from his struggles early in the year whiie Garrett Jones has been playing well, and again rolled the dice with Toronto's hyped prospect that has never done much in Travis Snider. That being said, the Bucos had to something, and getting Wandy Rodriquez covers them for when the inevitable Eric Bedard injury happens.

Arizona Diamondbacks: I really like getting proven playoff vet Scott Podsenik. And Chris Johnson is an upgrade from Ryan Roberts. But with the moves that the Dodgers, and especially the Gigantes made, I don't know if it will be enough.

L.A. Dodgers: This all depends on whether Hanley reverts back to the Hanley of old. Hopefully he can take Matt Kemp's Maturity Seminar and start raking. Shane Victorino could also have an impact, and at the very minimum is an upgrade over Bobby Abreu.

                                                      Big Fat Losers

Baltimore Orioles: The O's magically avoided their traditional June/July swoon, and ...did....absolutely.....nothing. There's a reason people hate Peter Angelos

Boston Red Sox: I don't have enough time to try and analyze this train wreck. So I'll keep it simple. Craig Breslow does not win you a championship.

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Tampa Bay Rays: TB is really limited monetarily. And with Evan Longoria coming back to DH, they didn't think they had to do anything. I would have tried to grab a bat, but maybe they can get Johnny Damon or something. If they win, it will be because of pitching anyway.

Texas Rangers: As an unabashed Cubs homer, I love Ryan Dempster. I also don't think his stuff is going to play very well in Texas, and that he's heading for about a 7-something ERA in the playoffs. They need to either move Alexi Ogando do the rotation, or plan on winning a bunch 12-10 games

                                              
Washington Nationals: I would have preferred the Nats to get some kind of Strasburg insurance if they're insisting upon this absurd innings limit that they seem to be holding onto (More on this at a later date).

Oakland A's: No one expected them to get this far, so they basically can't complain unless they go 0-57 the rest of the way. They don't really lose, they just don't get into the winners category either.

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College Basketball Preview:h Epic Guitar Solo

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This was going to be written along with the rest of my college preview, but I either got lazy, or decided to watch a couple of games first to make the analysis a little more potent(I'll let you decide). Without further ado, here's the guitar solo, or the grand finale of my humble little college basketball preview where I pick my favorite team to win it all.     



10. Baylor Bears
Last Year: 18-13
League: Big 12
Studs:  Quincy Acy Sr.F, Perry Jones Soph. F, Quincy Miller Frosh. F
Baylor has gotten off to a 6-0 start with Jones missing the first 5 of these games. They haven't beaten anybody of merit other than San Diego St, but they look as though their guard play is much improved with the addition of Pierre Jackson from the junior college ranks. It seemed like last year it was the "4 dudes stand around while this dude with the crazy ass name LaceDarius goes one on three" offense, while this year they have multiple options with both Perry and Anthony Jones, Acy, and Frosh. Quincy Miller, who has been one of the best freshman in the country so far. The major strength the Bears have is depth inside, which no one in the Big 12 is going to be able to hang with. Kansas has Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey, Mizzou has Ricardo Ratliffe and a bunch of guards, and A&M has the numbers but not the same height and length. I still feel like the Big 12 is Baylor's to lose, and if Perry Jones can regularly score 27 a game like he did in his debut the other night, and Jackson can run the offense without turning the ball over, they might have a Final 4 run in them.

9. Florida Gators
Last Year:29-8
League:SEC
Studs: Kenny Boynton Jr G,  Erving  Walker, Sr. G. Patric Young F Soph.
Florida is off to a 5-1 start, and their loss to Ohio St. on the road doesn't look quite as bad now after Duke got curbstomped in Columbus on Tuesday night. We knew going in that the Gators guards would be the key, and so far the quartet of Boynton, Walker, Mike Rosario, and Bradley Beal are combining to shoot 42 percent from deep and are scoring 67 percent of the teams points. Beal has been especially impressive, as he was described as the next "Ray Allen." He's does a lot more than just shoot though, averaging 6.5 rebounds and 1 block so far. The Gators will struggle against any team with size, because as talented as Young is, he can't do it all by himself. The emergence of 6'7 Soph. Will Yeguete may very well be the key to the Gators whole season, as if he gives them another banger to take the pressure off of Young having to do all of the dirty work by himself, then Florida can let the guards shoot them deep into March.


8. Pitt Panthers
Last Year 28-6
League:Big East
Studs: Ashton Gibbs Sr G, Nasir Robinson, Jr. F, Travon Woodall  Jr. G
Pitt stays here for now even though they lost to my #39 ranked Long Beach St. squad (Westside mutherfucka). I still like the potential here, although losing Woodall, who may be the MVP of the team so far for a month is going to cause them to drop in the rankings quite a bit. "Tre" is averging 8.3 assists so far and shooting 46% from three, arguably out playing Gibbs. They have a bunch of scrappy overachievers as per usual, with Robinson, Lamar Patterson, Khem Birch, and Dante Taylor all having their moments so far on the boards and defensively. I'd like to see Gibbs use Woodall's abscence to take over and make this his team, as he's going to have to now handle the ball and score. This honestly could be good for the Panthers as they head into Big East play. They'll probably still flame out like they always due in March, but this will be another quality regular season team that will finish at the top of the Big East, with the potential to ride a Gibbs hot streak into a Final Four berth.

7. Vanderbilt Commodores
Last Year:23-11
League: SEC
Studs: John Jenkins Jr. G.  Jeffery Taylor Sr. F. Festus Ezeli. Sr. C
Dear Festus,

Please come back. We've already lost twice and we need you inside or our season will be ruined by January. We're letting other teams shoot 46% from the field and we've already lost twice, with a good chance to lose tonight at Louisville which will probably take us from number 7 in the Brody preseason poll to out of the top 25 in the national poll that actually matters. John and Jeffery can't do it all by themselves. Calipari is already talking shit to me about how Anthony Davis is going to block 25 shots when we play them. Billy Donovan is texting me that his team and his hair are better than me. I'm going to flip out. We need you now more than ever.
Sincerely,

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Coach Stallings                             

6. Duke Blue Devils
Last Year: 32-5
League: ACCG
Studs: Austin Rivers Frosh. G, Seth Curry Jr. G, Mason Plumlee, Jr. F
This was going to be suprisingly complimentary and positive until I witnessed the ass kicking the Buckeyes put on the Dookies Tuesday. It exposed all of their flaws, and the flaws that they've had pretty much since the days of J.J. Redick. Mainly, that Duke always lives by the three and dies by the three. Right now, they have one person who can get his own shot without spotting up, and that's an inconsistent freshman in Rivers. Mark Titus talks about him having a "punchable face," and I can only nod my head in agreement with the ESPN.com writer. His shitty body language has gotten better, but I get the impression his team doesn't like him very much. When they're clicking, the Curry's, Dawkins' and Ryan Kelly's of the world can light it up, enabling Duke to beat anyone, but when they're off, it's going to be ugly. I'm still not scared of the Plumlee's and unless they step up, and Rivers turns into Kyrie Irving, Duke will be second in the ACC and will lose in the Sweet 16.


5. Syracuse Orange
Last Year:27-8
League: Big East
Studs: Kris Joseph Sr. F, Scoop Jardine, Sr. G, Brandon Triche, Jr. G
In the midst of all the Bernie Fine controversy, Cuse arguably has the best team they've had since the Carmelo days. The main reason is their depth. They don't have a 1st Team All-American on the roster (although Joseph has been really good so far), but they can bring guys like Dion Waiters, C.J. Fair, and James Southerland off the bench, offsetting any foul trouble concerns and letting Boeheim play whoever has the hot hand. Jardine and Triche are the major keys, and if they step it up and can knock down shots from the perimeter, combining with all the size in the middle of their 2-3 zone, then Cuse is a legit national title threat. I'm very curious how it turns out tonight against Florida, as they have the guards to test the zone.

4. UCONN Huskies
Last Year:32-9 (National Champs)
League: Big East
Studs: Jeremy Lamb, Soph. G, Shabazz Napier, Soph. G, Andre Drummond, Frosh. C
The loss to UCF notwithstanding, UCONN still has the potential to be extremely good this year. One reason is the emergence of Lamb into maybe the best player in college ball, instead of just Kemba's loyal sidekick. Napier has also improved greatly, and now with Ryan Boatright back from suspension, they have the guard play that you need. Chemistry might be an issue, as Alex Oriakhi has been bitching on twitter about playing time already. Drummond is obviously a huge talent, but his numbers haven't been that great so far other than his 2.9 blocks a game. This happens in the pros all the time, as once a team wins a championship, the dreaded "disease of more" rears its ugly head. People want more shots, more playing time etc, forgetting the sacrifices they made to win it all. It will be interesting to see what direction Calhoun goes with his rotation
and whether the Oriakhi's and the Roscoe Smith's of the world can handle losing minutes after starting on a National Title team.

3. Ohio St. Buckeyes
Last Year:34-3
League: Big 10
Studs: Jared Sullinger, Soph. F, William Buford, Sr. G, Aaron Craft, Soph. G
It's amazing that this is a team that only has one senior and one junior, yet they play like they have all upperclassmen. Craft might be the most improved player in all the land, and so far the slimmed down Sullinger has averaged 19 and 10 boards. There's so much talent on the bench, it bears watching whether Thad Matta extends his rotation and plays 9-10 guys instead of the 7 that he usually employs. It's working right now with 7, and as Deshaun Thomas continues to be that third scorer to go along with Buford and Sullinger, and Craft continues to be an absolute pest on defense, the Buckeyes have to be a clear cut favorite in the Big 10, and right now is probably the best team in the country.


2. Kentucky Wildcats
Last Year:29-9
League: SEC
Studs: Terrence Jones, Soph. F, Doron Lamb, Soph. G, Anthony Davis, Frosh. C

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Don't get me wrong, I still don't like Coach Cal and am not a big fan of Kentucky much like in years past. I can't wait for Carolina to beat their asses tomorrow on their own floor. I did however catch myself smiling as a basketball fan watching the second half of their game against Kansas a couple of weeks ago. It's as though Calipari had a gigantic cattle prod, with he used to collectively poke the whole team into playing an absolute dominant half of basketball. They have size, athleticism, speed, swagger, shooting, and could honestly go undeafeated if they beat UNC. They are also very young and with that, prone to having a bad game or 5. I think the two most important "glue guy" type of players that will determine their fate will be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Darius Miller. Miller isn't shooting the ball well (24% from deep) and has lost his starting spot as a senior, which isn't always easy to take no matter how much of a team guy you are. He was the SEC tourney MVP last year, and has played with a who's who of NBA players in the last two seasons. If they get him going, he and Lamb give Kentucky the shooting they need. MKG will be the defensive stopper that can lock down four positions. I'm really hyped to see how he does against Harrison Barnes tomorrow. The ceiling is unlimited, but I hope Calipari finds a way to fuck it up.

1. UNC TarHeels
Last Year:29-8
League: ACC
Studs: The Whole Roster
I'm going to divide my UNC analysis into two parts, what my head says and what my heart says.

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Heart: When Harrison Barnes came back to school, it all but wrapped up the national title race before the season even started. Kendall Marshall is the best college point guard passer since Jason Kidd. John Henson is a freak of nature who will average 15 rebounds and 5 blocks a game. Tyler Zeller is going to average 20 and 10, and P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo will dominate playing 15 minutes a game. Dexter Strickland will be the "Dex Factor" all year, and will shut down whatever guard he needs to. Carolina won't lose in the ACC and is going to romp to the championship with ease.

Head: Pump the breaks, losing to UNLV and allowing them to get whatever shot they wanted all over the court does not make you a national championship contender. Losing Leslie McDonald's shooting and leadership is going to hurt more than they realize. Marshall still can't shoot, Barnes is still a little inconsistent, and Zeller is still getting bullied inside. McAddo looks lost, Reggie Bullock isn't all the way back from injury, and God help us if teams decide to play "Hack a Shaq" defense on Henson.

The answer, as always lies somewhere in the middle. Carolina is still really good, and still has to be considered a firm Championship contender. There are little things that worry me however. Tomorrow will tell a lot. In terms of how I actually feel about the TarHeels chances, I'd go with the heart argument. I've never been very good at using my brain, so why start now.