Week 5 College Football Preview

                                          Week 5 College Football Preview

To cap off my writing about college football this season, I decided to let four weeks worth of games play out before I offered any attempt at any type of coherent analysis. You're taking a big leap of faith by assuming anything I say is “coherent” on the sport, but regardless this week I'm going to give some predictions and unveil my first edition of player rankings based off of my OCD statistical tallying. In future weeks, the formula will include some power rankings, combined with some picks and updates on player rankings. Wtihout further ado.....



                                                                  Picks

Arizona St. (2-1) 20, USC (3-1) 7: USC has a really good defense. They've only given up an average of 11 points a game, and 230.5 yards a game so far. On the other side, Cody Kessler is horrible. Marquise Lee is making the same face that Larry Fitzgerald made all last year after John Skelton threw the ball 58 feet over his head again on 3^rd and 12. At this point he's probably actively scouring the streets of Compton trying to see if the dude who played QB for his Pop Warner team when he was 12 can get into USC in time to learn the offense. Taylor Kelly and ASU won't be able to do much, but they'll do enough to get the win at home. They'll struggle to move the ball, but USC doesn't have nearly enough on offense to win on the road here.

Alabama (3-0) 38, Ole Miss (3-0) 31: I'm on board when it comes to Ole Miss. I think they will beat either LSU or Texas A&M. They have so much good young talent it's hard not to take notice. That being said, Alabama is still Alabama. I think the Rebs scare the crap out Saban's boys, but take a close loss here that they almost need to fully develop the scar tissue needed to be truly great in the future. I think this may be the best game of the weekend, and I think Laquon Treadwell (shouts to Crete, IL) and the other WR's will torch an overmatched Bama secondary. I just think Ole Miss just isn't quite there just yet. The Tide win it in a close one.

Ohio St. (4-0) 45, Wisconsin (3-1) 24: Wisconsin hasn't lost a beat with Montee Ball moving on to play with Peyton Manning. They are averaging 8.0 yards a carry, and with Melvin Gordon, James White, and freshman Corey Clement, they have the 2^nd, 14^th, and 24^th best offensive players in my esteemed player rankings. On the Buckeye side, they will get Braxton Miller back and have multiple receivers to get the ball to against the Badger secondary. The reason Ohio State wins is the fact that they can shut down the run just enough to force Joe Stave to have to beat them through the air. With Jared Abbrederis being their only real threat, I think LB Ryan Shazier, and a really young and talented front seven hold the run game in check enough for Miller and his receivers to make enough plays to break things open in the second half.

Notre Dame (3-1) 23, Oklahoma (3-0) 10: I'm sure everyone in America is picking Oklahoma unless you're an unabashed Notre Dame homer like myself. My theory on this one is simple. If ND can win in Oklahoma last year against Landry Jones and a team that I feel was much better than this year's unit, then I don't see them losing at home this year. Blake Bell will not throw for over 400 yards against the Irish D, and I think Notre Dame follows the same template as last week's win against Michigan State, winning a low-scoring game at home as the defense continues to round into form.

LSU (4-0) 34, Georgia (2-1) 33: I heard on “SVP and Russilo” that Aaron Murray was actually looking for places to transfer when he thought he got beat out by Zach Mettenberger in the spring of 2010. I had no idea that Mettenberger was that good at the time. He got the boot from Georgia, and know is in charge of maybe the most potent offense I've seen from LSU in the last five years. He's finally playing like the highly-rated passer he was supposed to be, Cam Cameron has opened things up from the play calling department, and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are better than anyone Georgia has to cover them. Both defenses are young, and I think Georgia will score points. I just think LSU is just slightly better, and when you add in the potential revenge narrative with Mettenberger playing against the school that showed him the door, LSU will win.

                                             

(photo courtesy of google images)

                                                        Week 4 Player Rankings

( I've been using the same system for a couple of years now, and while it's not perfect, I feel it gives a somewhat accurate portrayal of how players are performing. I limit my rankings to teams in the top 25, and give out points based on how individual players rank in certain categories, and add in bonus points for hitting certain benchmarks in individual games (10 tackles, 2 Int's, 300 yards passing etc).

                                                          Defense Top 25:

(photo courtesy of google images)

25. Lamarcus Joyner, CB FSU 165
24. Tyrone Taylor, LB, Texas A&M 166
23. Blake Countess, CB, Michigan 171
22. Dion Bailey, S, USC 173
21. Stephone Anthony, LB Clemson 176
20. Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA 180
19. Keenan Graham, DE, UCLA 181
18. Armani Reeves, CB, Ohio St. 186
17. Tyler Scott, DE, Northwestern 187
16. Devon Kennard, LB, USC 189
15. Caleb Lavey, LB, Oklahoma St. 193
14. Noah Spence, DE, Ohio St. 196
13. Doran Grant, CB, Ohio St. 199
11. Ciante Evans CB, Nebraksa 202
11. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska 202
10. Chi Chi Aruguzo LB Northwestern 204
9. James Burgess LB Louisville 206
8. Tony Washington DE Oregon 240
7. Amarlo Herrera LB Georgia 249
6. Lorenzo Maudlin DE Louisville 259
4. Colin Ellis LB Northwestern 260
4. Brennan Beyer LB Michigan 260
3. Vic Beasley DE Clemson 264
2. Dean Lowry DE Norhwestern 277
1. Preston Brown LB Louiville 309

Offense Rankings

25. Ameer Abdullah RB Nebraska 110
25. Tahj Boyd QB Clemson 110
24.  Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 116
23. Mike Davis RB South Carolina 118
21 Odell Beckham WR LSU 122
21. Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor 122
20. Zach Mettenberger QB LSU 124
19. Bryce Petty QB Baylor 125
18. Jameis Winston QB FSU 126
17. Tyler Gaffney RB Stanford 127
16. J.W.Walsh QB Oklahoma St. 139
15. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M 143
14. James White RB Wisconsin 144
13. Devin Gardner QB Michigan 147
11. Jordan James RB UCLA 157
11. DeAnthony Thomas RB Oregon 157
10. Tommy Rees QB Notre Dame 160
9. Aaron Murray QB Georgia 161
7. Jarvis Landry WR LSU 169
7. Todd Gurley RB Georgia 169
5. Treveon Green RB Northwestern 177
5. Jordan Hall RB Ohio St. 177
4. Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M 191
3. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville 199
2. Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin 216
1. Marcus Mariota QB Oregon 259

(photo courtesy of google images)

Many of these rankings get pretty skewed at the beginning of the season with bye weeks and the lack of quality oppostiion making the numbers get a little bit out of whack. That being said, both Marcus Mariota and Preston Brown deserve to be in the top spots as of right now. Oregon's offense speaks for itself, and Mariota has been a magician both running and throwing. He has run for 15-262 with 4 TD's, with an average of 17 yards a carry. He's also thrown for 889 yards with 7 TD's and 0 Int's.

Manziel could very easily catch him as the Aggies will have to put up numbers on his side of the ball to win. Big 10 running backs Melvin Gordon, Jordan Hall, and Treveon Green are all in the top five for now, but also might slip slightlywith other running backs on their rosters either coming back from injuries, or simply taking carries away from them. Jarvis Landry is the top WR so far, but keep an eye on Mike Evans or teammate Odell Beckham to maybe move past him.

Defensively, Preston Brown takes the top spot with 29 tackles, 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble. The top 10 is littered with players from Louisville and Northwestern, as they've both created a bunch of turnovers and gotten a bunch of sacks. I doubt that the Wildcats will have 4 in the top 10 every week, but they've been really good so far.