Week 5 College Football Preview

                                          Week 5 College Football Preview

To cap off my writing about college football this season, I decided to let four weeks worth of games play out before I offered any attempt at any type of coherent analysis. You're taking a big leap of faith by assuming anything I say is “coherent” on the sport, but regardless this week I'm going to give some predictions and unveil my first edition of player rankings based off of my OCD statistical tallying. In future weeks, the formula will include some power rankings, combined with some picks and updates on player rankings. Wtihout further ado.....



                                                                  Picks

Arizona St. (2-1) 20, USC (3-1) 7: USC has a really good defense. They've only given up an average of 11 points a game, and 230.5 yards a game so far. On the other side, Cody Kessler is horrible. Marquise Lee is making the same face that Larry Fitzgerald made all last year after John Skelton threw the ball 58 feet over his head again on 3^rd and 12. At this point he's probably actively scouring the streets of Compton trying to see if the dude who played QB for his Pop Warner team when he was 12 can get into USC in time to learn the offense. Taylor Kelly and ASU won't be able to do much, but they'll do enough to get the win at home. They'll struggle to move the ball, but USC doesn't have nearly enough on offense to win on the road here.

Alabama (3-0) 38, Ole Miss (3-0) 31: I'm on board when it comes to Ole Miss. I think they will beat either LSU or Texas A&M. They have so much good young talent it's hard not to take notice. That being said, Alabama is still Alabama. I think the Rebs scare the crap out Saban's boys, but take a close loss here that they almost need to fully develop the scar tissue needed to be truly great in the future. I think this may be the best game of the weekend, and I think Laquon Treadwell (shouts to Crete, IL) and the other WR's will torch an overmatched Bama secondary. I just think Ole Miss just isn't quite there just yet. The Tide win it in a close one.

Ohio St. (4-0) 45, Wisconsin (3-1) 24: Wisconsin hasn't lost a beat with Montee Ball moving on to play with Peyton Manning. They are averaging 8.0 yards a carry, and with Melvin Gordon, James White, and freshman Corey Clement, they have the 2^nd, 14^th, and 24^th best offensive players in my esteemed player rankings. On the Buckeye side, they will get Braxton Miller back and have multiple receivers to get the ball to against the Badger secondary. The reason Ohio State wins is the fact that they can shut down the run just enough to force Joe Stave to have to beat them through the air. With Jared Abbrederis being their only real threat, I think LB Ryan Shazier, and a really young and talented front seven hold the run game in check enough for Miller and his receivers to make enough plays to break things open in the second half.

Notre Dame (3-1) 23, Oklahoma (3-0) 10: I'm sure everyone in America is picking Oklahoma unless you're an unabashed Notre Dame homer like myself. My theory on this one is simple. If ND can win in Oklahoma last year against Landry Jones and a team that I feel was much better than this year's unit, then I don't see them losing at home this year. Blake Bell will not throw for over 400 yards against the Irish D, and I think Notre Dame follows the same template as last week's win against Michigan State, winning a low-scoring game at home as the defense continues to round into form.

LSU (4-0) 34, Georgia (2-1) 33: I heard on “SVP and Russilo” that Aaron Murray was actually looking for places to transfer when he thought he got beat out by Zach Mettenberger in the spring of 2010. I had no idea that Mettenberger was that good at the time. He got the boot from Georgia, and know is in charge of maybe the most potent offense I've seen from LSU in the last five years. He's finally playing like the highly-rated passer he was supposed to be, Cam Cameron has opened things up from the play calling department, and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are better than anyone Georgia has to cover them. Both defenses are young, and I think Georgia will score points. I just think LSU is just slightly better, and when you add in the potential revenge narrative with Mettenberger playing against the school that showed him the door, LSU will win.

                                             

(photo courtesy of google images)

                                                        Week 4 Player Rankings

( I've been using the same system for a couple of years now, and while it's not perfect, I feel it gives a somewhat accurate portrayal of how players are performing. I limit my rankings to teams in the top 25, and give out points based on how individual players rank in certain categories, and add in bonus points for hitting certain benchmarks in individual games (10 tackles, 2 Int's, 300 yards passing etc).

                                                          Defense Top 25:

(photo courtesy of google images)

25. Lamarcus Joyner, CB FSU 165
24. Tyrone Taylor, LB, Texas A&M 166
23. Blake Countess, CB, Michigan 171
22. Dion Bailey, S, USC 173
21. Stephone Anthony, LB Clemson 176
20. Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA 180
19. Keenan Graham, DE, UCLA 181
18. Armani Reeves, CB, Ohio St. 186
17. Tyler Scott, DE, Northwestern 187
16. Devon Kennard, LB, USC 189
15. Caleb Lavey, LB, Oklahoma St. 193
14. Noah Spence, DE, Ohio St. 196
13. Doran Grant, CB, Ohio St. 199
11. Ciante Evans CB, Nebraksa 202
11. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska 202
10. Chi Chi Aruguzo LB Northwestern 204
9. James Burgess LB Louisville 206
8. Tony Washington DE Oregon 240
7. Amarlo Herrera LB Georgia 249
6. Lorenzo Maudlin DE Louisville 259
4. Colin Ellis LB Northwestern 260
4. Brennan Beyer LB Michigan 260
3. Vic Beasley DE Clemson 264
2. Dean Lowry DE Norhwestern 277
1. Preston Brown LB Louiville 309

Offense Rankings

25. Ameer Abdullah RB Nebraska 110
25. Tahj Boyd QB Clemson 110
24.  Corey Clement RB Wisconsin 116
23. Mike Davis RB South Carolina 118
21 Odell Beckham WR LSU 122
21. Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor 122
20. Zach Mettenberger QB LSU 124
19. Bryce Petty QB Baylor 125
18. Jameis Winston QB FSU 126
17. Tyler Gaffney RB Stanford 127
16. J.W.Walsh QB Oklahoma St. 139
15. Mike Evans WR Texas A&M 143
14. James White RB Wisconsin 144
13. Devin Gardner QB Michigan 147
11. Jordan James RB UCLA 157
11. DeAnthony Thomas RB Oregon 157
10. Tommy Rees QB Notre Dame 160
9. Aaron Murray QB Georgia 161
7. Jarvis Landry WR LSU 169
7. Todd Gurley RB Georgia 169
5. Treveon Green RB Northwestern 177
5. Jordan Hall RB Ohio St. 177
4. Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M 191
3. Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville 199
2. Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin 216
1. Marcus Mariota QB Oregon 259

(photo courtesy of google images)

Many of these rankings get pretty skewed at the beginning of the season with bye weeks and the lack of quality oppostiion making the numbers get a little bit out of whack. That being said, both Marcus Mariota and Preston Brown deserve to be in the top spots as of right now. Oregon's offense speaks for itself, and Mariota has been a magician both running and throwing. He has run for 15-262 with 4 TD's, with an average of 17 yards a carry. He's also thrown for 889 yards with 7 TD's and 0 Int's.

Manziel could very easily catch him as the Aggies will have to put up numbers on his side of the ball to win. Big 10 running backs Melvin Gordon, Jordan Hall, and Treveon Green are all in the top five for now, but also might slip slightlywith other running backs on their rosters either coming back from injuries, or simply taking carries away from them. Jarvis Landry is the top WR so far, but keep an eye on Mike Evans or teammate Odell Beckham to maybe move past him.

Defensively, Preston Brown takes the top spot with 29 tackles, 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble. The top 10 is littered with players from Louisville and Northwestern, as they've both created a bunch of turnovers and gotten a bunch of sacks. I doubt that the Wildcats will have 4 in the top 10 every week, but they've been really good so far.

College Football Week 3 Quick Picks

                                               Week 3 Picks



 #1 Alabama (2-0) at Arkansas (1-1): What was supposed to be the game of the weekend has now lost pretty much all of its luster due to a little school named Louisiana-Monroe, and the head injury to the Hogs' Sr. QB Tyler Wilson. Now, this is going to be an absolute bloodbath. Bama's D that lost six starters has looked...just as good if not better than last year's unit. Keep an eye on CB Dee Millner to come away with one or two picks. Alabama 42, Arkansas 13.

UNC (1-1) at Louisville (2-0): I'll refrain from discussing UNC's NCAA issues, or discussing my failed two month stint living in Lawville (you have to pronounce it like you have marbles in your mouth). Sticking with the foosballl only, Teddy Bridgewater is really good. The UNC D has some playmakers, including Stafford County's own Tim Scott (Colonial Forge) playing corner. He has two picks on the year, but Bridgewater has yet to throw any, completing 82% of his passes so far. This could be close, especially after Carolina lost to a shitty Wake Forest team last week. Bridgewater, and safteies Hakeem Smith and Calvin Pryor will be the difference makers for LVL. Louisville 24, UNC 21.

USC (2-0) at Stanford (2-0): Stanford has won four in a row against the men of Troy, but they also don't have that Luck dude anymore. I expect this one to be close, as USC showed last week against Syracuse that they still have some question marks on D. That being said, they have too many weapons on the other side of the ball. I think Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas will lead the way in stopping Silas Redd, but the Barkley-Woods, and Barkley-Lee combos will be good for at least 3 touchdowns. USC 35, Stanford 24

( google images)

Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (2-0): To simplify this one without getting swayed by the wit of the signs from Knoxville on the set of college gameday (to recap: lots of quality jorts barbs and a Nickelback reference referring to Will Muschamp's musical choices), I like Tyler Bray much better than Jeff Driskel. With everything else pretty much being even, I think this and having homefield is worth enough for the Vols to get the win. Orange Pants 21, Jorts 17

Notre Dame(2-0) at Michigan St. (2-0): I'm a homer. I'm not going to hide the fact that I'm a homer. I am scared shitless of Notre Dame's lack of experience in the secondary, but I'm also not scared of Andrew Maxwell or his receivers. I will preface this pick by saying as long as Brian Kelly doesn't do Brian Kelly type of things and get in the way, I pick the Irish in an upset. Dealing with two horrible personal losses this week, Sr. LB Manti Te'o will be all over the field. Notre Dame 17, Michigan St. 13.

Early Top 5's

There haven't been too many significant games,  and with starters only playing 2-3 quarters due to being up by 50 at halftime, the stats are slightly skewed. That being said, some have stood out more than others after two weeks.

Offense:
1. Braxton Miller, Soph. QB Ohio St.
2. Matt Barkley Sr. QB USC
2. Le'Veon Bell Jr. RB Michigan St.
4. Taylor Martinez Jr. QB Nebraska
5. DeAndre Hopkins Jr. WR, Clemson
5. Marquise Lee Soph. WR, USC
(Miller and Bell have been absolute workhorses so far, rushing for 302 and 280 yards respectively. Barkley to Lee sounds like it might bring a Heisman in the early going, while Martinez came back to earth last week against a resurgent UCLA defense. Hopkins has proven so far that Clemson has two future high draft picks at receiver, stepping up without Sammie Watkins).

(google images)

Defense:
1. Jarvis Jones Jr. LB, Georgia
2. Bjorn Werner Jr. DE, FSU
3. Ross Rasner Sr. S Arkansas
4. Morgan Breslin Jr. DE, USC
5. Terrence Garvin Sr. S/LB WVU
(Jarvis Jones needs a nickname. We'll just go with J twice for right now. Whatever you want to call him, Jones has 16 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 Int, 2 forced fumbles, 2.5 TFL's and 2 PBU's on the season. On a D that is still missing 4 starters, he literally put his team on his back last week against a fired up Mizzou unit. Werner has 5 sacks already, albeit against glorified D8 schools. Rasner has good numbers on a D that doesn't have much else, while Breslin and Garvin also have been impressive).

Why Notre Dame Will Still Make a BCS Bowl

     This is some seriously optimistic propaganda from someone who repeatedly gets kicked in the testicles by his favorite sports teams, and by life in general (hence the name of the site). However, after watching the DVR replay late Saturday night after work of the ND-USF game, then continuing on to http://www.nbcsports.com/ because mother nature wanted to make it a 6 hour game to fuck with my head a little further, I came to some conclusions. Namely, I don't think a team could have played any worse, still having a chance to win against a quality opponent than the Irish on Saturday. Notre Dame didn't open up against Missouri St, Florida Atlantic, or Chattanooga like some of their brethren in the top 25 did. Against some of those teams, they would have had the luxury of losing the turnover battle 5-0, committing 8 penalities, and missing a chip shot field goal. They played scared, basically having what amounts to a collective panic attack in front of 80.795 people and countless more watching on tv. Here's my take on why they'll come back from this stinkbomb of a performance and come back stronger.

     The Irish literally moved the ball at will for the majority of the game. They outgained South Florida 508-254. Michael Floyd proved to be virtually unstoppable, and as teams key on stopping him, they have two more WR's (T.J. Jones and Theo Riddick), and a quality TE in Tyler Eifert to take the pressure off. In addition, Cierre Wood ran more over 100 yards, basically in the first half as ND had to take to the air for most of the 2nd half. Eliminate the turnovers and this can be an unstoppable offense, whether its Tommy Rees or Dayne Crist running the show.

     Defensively, Man'ti Teo and the boys really only gave up 13 points to a team with a skilled dual-threat QB, and some speedy receivers. If they only give up 13 a game all year, and can sprinkle in a couple of turnovers, continuing to play some true freshmen from Coach Brian Kelly's top 10 recruiting class, they'll win pretty much every game this year from here on out.

     The majority of College Football had their responses ready post defeat, with all the "Notre Dame is overrated again" and "please stop talking about an irrelevant team"  bullshit the haters all across the country like to spew upon the Yankees of college football. I'd simply combat that by saying it's a long season. It's far better to play your worst game early, then get on a roll. If the Irish can win against Michigan, Michigan St. and Pitt, they'll be right back in the top 15, with a chance to knock off USC and Stanford . WHEN all of this happens, you can look back fondly at this post, as Notre Dame will be sitting in that BCS bowl game, where if they play like they're capable of, they'll deserve to be.