This was going to be written along with the rest of my college preview, but I either got lazy, or decided to watch a couple of games first to make the analysis a little more potent(I'll let you decide). Without further ado, here's the guitar solo, or the grand finale of my humble little college basketball preview where I pick my favorite team to win it all.
10. Baylor Bears
Last Year: 18-13
League: Big 12
Studs: Quincy Acy Sr.F, Perry Jones Soph. F, Quincy Miller Frosh. F
Baylor has gotten off to a 6-0 start with Jones missing the first 5 of these games. They haven't beaten anybody of merit other than San Diego St, but they look as though their guard play is much improved with the addition of Pierre Jackson from the junior college ranks. It seemed like last year it was the "4 dudes stand around while this dude with the crazy ass name LaceDarius goes one on three" offense, while this year they have multiple options with both Perry and Anthony Jones, Acy, and Frosh. Quincy Miller, who has been one of the best freshman in the country so far. The major strength the Bears have is depth inside, which no one in the Big 12 is going to be able to hang with. Kansas has Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey, Mizzou has Ricardo Ratliffe and a bunch of guards, and A&M has the numbers but not the same height and length. I still feel like the Big 12 is Baylor's to lose, and if Perry Jones can regularly score 27 a game like he did in his debut the other night, and Jackson can run the offense without turning the ball over, they might have a Final 4 run in them.
9. Florida Gators
Last Year:29-8
League:SEC
Studs: Kenny Boynton Jr G, Erving Walker, Sr. G. Patric Young F Soph.
Florida is off to a 5-1 start, and their loss to Ohio St. on the road doesn't look quite as bad now after Duke got curbstomped in Columbus on Tuesday night. We knew going in that the Gators guards would be the key, and so far the quartet of Boynton, Walker, Mike Rosario, and Bradley Beal are combining to shoot 42 percent from deep and are scoring 67 percent of the teams points. Beal has been especially impressive, as he was described as the next "Ray Allen." He's does a lot more than just shoot though, averaging 6.5 rebounds and 1 block so far. The Gators will struggle against any team with size, because as talented as Young is, he can't do it all by himself. The emergence of 6'7 Soph. Will Yeguete may very well be the key to the Gators whole season, as if he gives them another banger to take the pressure off of Young having to do all of the dirty work by himself, then Florida can let the guards shoot them deep into March.
8. Pitt Panthers
Last Year 28-6
League:Big East
Studs: Ashton Gibbs Sr G, Nasir Robinson, Jr. F, Travon Woodall Jr. G
Pitt stays here for now even though they lost to my #39 ranked Long Beach St. squad (Westside mutherfucka). I still like the potential here, although losing Woodall, who may be the MVP of the team so far for a month is going to cause them to drop in the rankings quite a bit. "Tre" is averging 8.3 assists so far and shooting 46% from three, arguably out playing Gibbs. They have a bunch of scrappy overachievers as per usual, with Robinson, Lamar Patterson, Khem Birch, and Dante Taylor all having their moments so far on the boards and defensively. I'd like to see Gibbs use Woodall's abscence to take over and make this his team, as he's going to have to now handle the ball and score. This honestly could be good for the Panthers as they head into Big East play. They'll probably still flame out like they always due in March, but this will be another quality regular season team that will finish at the top of the Big East, with the potential to ride a Gibbs hot streak into a Final Four berth.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
Last Year:23-11
League: SEC
Studs: John Jenkins Jr. G. Jeffery Taylor Sr. F. Festus Ezeli. Sr. C
Dear Festus,
Please come back. We've already lost twice and we need you inside or our season will be ruined by January. We're letting other teams shoot 46% from the field and we've already lost twice, with a good chance to lose tonight at Louisville which will probably take us from number 7 in the Brody preseason poll to out of the top 25 in the national poll that actually matters. John and Jeffery can't do it all by themselves. Calipari is already talking shit to me about how Anthony Davis is going to block 25 shots when we play them. Billy Donovan is texting me that his team and his hair are better than me. I'm going to flip out. We need you now more than ever.
Sincerely,
Coach Stallings
6. Duke Blue Devils
Last Year: 32-5
League: ACCG
Studs: Austin Rivers Frosh. G, Seth Curry Jr. G, Mason Plumlee, Jr. F
This was going to be suprisingly complimentary and positive until I witnessed the ass kicking the Buckeyes put on the Dookies Tuesday. It exposed all of their flaws, and the flaws that they've had pretty much since the days of J.J. Redick. Mainly, that Duke always lives by the three and dies by the three. Right now, they have one person who can get his own shot without spotting up, and that's an inconsistent freshman in Rivers. Mark Titus talks about him having a "punchable face," and I can only nod my head in agreement with the ESPN.com writer. His shitty body language has gotten better, but I get the impression his team doesn't like him very much. When they're clicking, the Curry's, Dawkins' and Ryan Kelly's of the world can light it up, enabling Duke to beat anyone, but when they're off, it's going to be ugly. I'm still not scared of the Plumlee's and unless they step up, and Rivers turns into Kyrie Irving, Duke will be second in the ACC and will lose in the Sweet 16.
5. Syracuse Orange
Last Year:27-8
League: Big East
Studs: Kris Joseph Sr. F, Scoop Jardine, Sr. G, Brandon Triche, Jr. G
In the midst of all the Bernie Fine controversy, Cuse arguably has the best team they've had since the Carmelo days. The main reason is their depth. They don't have a 1st Team All-American on the roster (although Joseph has been really good so far), but they can bring guys like Dion Waiters, C.J. Fair, and James Southerland off the bench, offsetting any foul trouble concerns and letting Boeheim play whoever has the hot hand. Jardine and Triche are the major keys, and if they step it up and can knock down shots from the perimeter, combining with all the size in the middle of their 2-3 zone, then Cuse is a legit national title threat. I'm very curious how it turns out tonight against Florida, as they have the guards to test the zone.
4. UCONN Huskies
Last Year:32-9 (National Champs)
League: Big East
Studs: Jeremy Lamb, Soph. G, Shabazz Napier, Soph. G, Andre Drummond, Frosh. C
The loss to UCF notwithstanding, UCONN still has the potential to be extremely good this year. One reason is the emergence of Lamb into maybe the best player in college ball, instead of just Kemba's loyal sidekick. Napier has also improved greatly, and now with Ryan Boatright back from suspension, they have the guard play that you need. Chemistry might be an issue, as Alex Oriakhi has been bitching on twitter about playing time already. Drummond is obviously a huge talent, but his numbers haven't been that great so far other than his 2.9 blocks a game. This happens in the pros all the time, as once a team wins a championship, the dreaded "disease of more" rears its ugly head. People want more shots, more playing time etc, forgetting the sacrifices they made to win it all. It will be interesting to see what direction Calhoun goes with his rotation
and whether the Oriakhi's and the Roscoe Smith's of the world can handle losing minutes after starting on a National Title team.
3. Ohio St. Buckeyes
Last Year:34-3
League: Big 10
Studs: Jared Sullinger, Soph. F, William Buford, Sr. G, Aaron Craft, Soph. G
It's amazing that this is a team that only has one senior and one junior, yet they play like they have all upperclassmen. Craft might be the most improved player in all the land, and so far the slimmed down Sullinger has averaged 19 and 10 boards. There's so much talent on the bench, it bears watching whether Thad Matta extends his rotation and plays 9-10 guys instead of the 7 that he usually employs. It's working right now with 7, and as Deshaun Thomas continues to be that third scorer to go along with Buford and Sullinger, and Craft continues to be an absolute pest on defense, the Buckeyes have to be a clear cut favorite in the Big 10, and right now is probably the best team in the country.
2. Kentucky Wildcats
Last Year:29-9
League: SEC
Studs: Terrence Jones, Soph. F, Doron Lamb, Soph. G, Anthony Davis, Frosh. C
Don't get me wrong, I still don't like Coach Cal and am not a big fan of Kentucky much like in years past. I can't wait for Carolina to beat their asses tomorrow on their own floor. I did however catch myself smiling as a basketball fan watching the second half of their game against Kansas a couple of weeks ago. It's as though Calipari had a gigantic cattle prod, with he used to collectively poke the whole team into playing an absolute dominant half of basketball. They have size, athleticism, speed, swagger, shooting, and could honestly go undeafeated if they beat UNC. They are also very young and with that, prone to having a bad game or 5. I think the two most important "glue guy" type of players that will determine their fate will be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Darius Miller. Miller isn't shooting the ball well (24% from deep) and has lost his starting spot as a senior, which isn't always easy to take no matter how much of a team guy you are. He was the SEC tourney MVP last year, and has played with a who's who of NBA players in the last two seasons. If they get him going, he and Lamb give Kentucky the shooting they need. MKG will be the defensive stopper that can lock down four positions. I'm really hyped to see how he does against Harrison Barnes tomorrow. The ceiling is unlimited, but I hope Calipari finds a way to fuck it up.
1. UNC TarHeels
Last Year:29-8
League: ACC
Studs: The Whole Roster
I'm going to divide my UNC analysis into two parts, what my head says and what my heart says.
Heart: When Harrison Barnes came back to school, it all but wrapped up the national title race before the season even started. Kendall Marshall is the best college point guard passer since Jason Kidd. John Henson is a freak of nature who will average 15 rebounds and 5 blocks a game. Tyler Zeller is going to average 20 and 10, and P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo will dominate playing 15 minutes a game. Dexter Strickland will be the "Dex Factor" all year, and will shut down whatever guard he needs to. Carolina won't lose in the ACC and is going to romp to the championship with ease.
Head: Pump the breaks, losing to UNLV and allowing them to get whatever shot they wanted all over the court does not make you a national championship contender. Losing Leslie McDonald's shooting and leadership is going to hurt more than they realize. Marshall still can't shoot, Barnes is still a little inconsistent, and Zeller is still getting bullied inside. McAddo looks lost, Reggie Bullock isn't all the way back from injury, and God help us if teams decide to play "Hack a Shaq" defense on Henson.
The answer, as always lies somewhere in the middle. Carolina is still really good, and still has to be considered a firm Championship contender. There are little things that worry me however. Tomorrow will tell a lot. In terms of how I actually feel about the TarHeels chances, I'd go with the heart argument. I've never been very good at using my brain, so why start now.
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